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The climate pledges of the world’s top emitters

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Under the Paris Agreement on climate, nearly every country will have to drastically reduce their carbon emissions, and must submit renewed plans to do so by the end of 2020.

The first raft of “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) submitted by nations would put Earth on course to be 3C hotter than pre-industrial times, a far cry from the Paris temperature cap goal of keeping warming beneath 2C.

But this year has seen a host of large emitters — notably China and Japan — commit to achieving net-zero output this century.

According to Climate Action Tracker, the current emissions pledges would likely see 2.1C of warming by 2100.

China

With its first NDC in 2016 China — by far the largest emitter responsible for roughly a quarter of all carbon pollution — promised to reduce the intensity of its emissions by as much as 65 percent by 2030.

Under that scenario, it planned to reach peak emissions at the end of this decade.

President Xi Jinping, however, shocked observers by announcing at the United Nations General Assembly in September his country now planned to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

Beijing has given few further details and is yet to submit its officially revised NDC.

United States

The second-largest polluter, the US was one of the driving forces behind the Paris deal, with an initial commitment to cut emissions by a quarter by 2025, compared with 2005.

Despite President Donald Trump’s decision to renege on the US’ Paris commitment, President-elect Joe Biden will make rejoining the accord one of his first acts in office next month.

Biden has set a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, but it is unlikely any plan will be made official this year.

European Union

The EU committed in 2015 to reduce its CO2 emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

The Commission subsequently boosted the bloc’s ambition to aim for a 55 percent cut in emissions by 2030 and to achieve net-zero by 2050.

A summit of the bloc’s leaders this week will see member nations decide whether to adopt the target.

Although Britain is leaving the EU it has a 2050 net-zero target built into law. On Friday it announced it would seek to reduce emissions 68 percent by 2030, compared with 1990 levels.

India

Like China, India plans to reduce its carbon intensity — by up to 35 percent this decade compared to 2005 levels.

The world’s third-largest polluter is yet to submit a renewed NDC.

Russia

Russia formally rejoined the Paris deal in 2019.

Moscow says it plans to achieve pollution levels in 2030 that are 70 percent of 1990 levels — in reality a drop of 30 percent.

Japan

Japan in 2016 committed to a 26-percent reduction in emissions by 2030. Its renewed NDC, issued in March, had the same figure.

However new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said in October the country would be carbon neutral by 2050.

Carbon neutrality

More and more countries are committing to achieve net zero emissions — that is, their carbon pollution will be equally absorbed or offset — by 2050.

But according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, which tracks each country’s NDCs, Britain and France are the only large emitters that have such plans anchored in law.

By comparison, more than 110 countries have committed to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 — 11 of which are in the G20.

5 percent

So far, fewer than 20 countries representing 5 percent of global emissions have so far submitted new NDCs in 2020, which is mandatory under the Paris Agreement.

A further 130 have however indicated that they plan to raise their ambition levels when they finally submit their plans, according to the World Resources Institute.

The United Nations Convention on Climate Change — which facilitates negotiations under the Paris deal — will present an evaluation of renewed NDCs in February.

– AFP

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Environment

Hurricane Milton ravages central Florida, sparking tornadoes and power outages

Hurricane Milton hit Florida on 9 October, making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. It caused widespread destruction, tornadoes, and power outages affecting nearly two million people. The storm’s impacts are felt across the state, including flash floods, damaged homes, and evacuation efforts.

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Hurricane Milton swept across central Florida on 10 October, after making landfall on the state’s west coast the previous evening, causing extensive damage with strong winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes.

The storm initially struck near Siesta Key on 9 October at approximately 8.30 pm EDT (8.30 am Singapore time on 10 October), with winds reaching 195 km/h, classifying it as a Category 3 hurricane, according to the US National Hurricane Centre.

As the hurricane continued eastward through Florida, it weakened to a Category 1 storm by early 10 October, with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h.

Despite this downgrade, the danger remained high, with severe rainfall and significant storm surges. The hurricane’s eye was about 75 km west-southwest of Cape Canaveral, which houses Nasa’s Space Force Station, at the time.

A flash flood emergency was declared for the Tampa Bay region, covering Tampa, St Petersburg, and Clearwater. The National Hurricane Centre reported that St Petersburg alone experienced 422 mm of rain on 9 October. Authorities warned that seawater could surge as high as 4 metres in certain areas, potentially inundating coastal communities.

Governor Ron DeSantis expressed hope that Tampa Bay would avoid the worst of the storm’s effects due to the timing of landfall before high tide.

However, Milton had already unleashed at least 19 tornadoes across the state, damaging numerous counties and destroying around 125 homes, including many mobile homes. “At this point, it’s too dangerous to evacuate safely, so you have to shelter in place and just hunker down,” Mr DeSantis said during a briefing following the storm’s landfall.

Tragically, at least two fatalities were reported at a retirement community in Fort Pierce on Florida’s eastern coast, following a suspected tornado, as cited by NBC News and St Lucie County Sheriff Keith Pearson.

The sheriff estimated that approximately 100 homes were destroyed by the tornadoes in the county, which saw about 17 touch down.

The hurricane caused significant power outages, leaving more than two million homes and businesses without electricity, according to data from PowerOutage.us. The storm was projected to move across Florida overnight before entering the Atlantic Ocean on 10 October, still maintaining hurricane strength.

The arrival of Hurricane Milton comes just two weeks after Hurricane Helene battered the southern United States, including Florida. State officials had already ordered the evacuation of up to two million residents ahead of Milton’s impact, with millions more remaining in its path. The cumulative damage from both hurricanes is expected to reach billions of dollars.

Florida’s recovery efforts were bolstered by federal support, with President Joe Biden being briefed on the situation by emergency response teams.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) has mobilised significant resources, including millions of litres of water, meals, and personnel, to assist those affected by Milton, even as it continues recovery work following Hurricane Helene.

Governor DeSantis confirmed that 9,000 National Guard personnel and 50,000 utility workers were deployed to aid in clearing debris and restoring power. Search-and-rescue teams were on standby to begin operations as soon as conditions allowed. “It’s going to mean pretty much all the rescues are going to be done in the dark, in the middle of the night, but that’s fine. They’re going to do that,” he added.

Despite these efforts, the damage from Hurricane Milton remains severe. High waves nearing 8.5 metres were recorded offshore, while boats were beached in St Petersburg, adding to the destruction.

Many parts of Florida faced fuel shortages, with almost 25% of petrol stations running dry by the afternoon of 9 October as residents evacuated.

While the human toll is the most pressing concern, other local efforts included protecting animals at Tampa’s zoo, where staff sheltered African elephants, flamingos, and other species.

The zoo joined residents in bracing for the worst, highlighting the widespread impact of the hurricane.

Political Controversy Surrounding Federal Response

The hurricane’s approach has also intensified political disputes, particularly as the US prepares for elections.

President Biden condemned the spread of disinformation regarding the government’s hurricane response, describing it as an attempt to “undermine confidence” in rescue and recovery efforts.

Former President Donald Trump has been critical of the Biden administration’s handling of disaster relief, especially following the impact of Hurricane Helene.

Trump claimed that resources intended for disaster victims had been diverted to assist migrants, a claim which Fema has categorically denied, emphasising that no disaster relief funds were diverted for this purpose.

Fema noted that its Disaster Relief Fund remains separate from budgets designated for migrant assistance.

In a highly charged political climate, these statements have led to further scrutiny of the federal response. Nonetheless, Fema asserts that it has the resources necessary for immediate response and recovery operations following both hurricanes.

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Singapore launches 15-month biodiversity monitoring plan after oil spill

Researchers in Singapore have initiated a 15-month monitoring plan to assess the impact of the June 14 oil spill on intertidal biodiversity. The effort, led by the National University of Singapore (NUS) and involving several institutions, aims to understand the effects of the spill on marine life in affected coastal areas, including East Coast Park and Sentosa.

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Researchers in Singapore have embarked on a 15-month plan to study the environmental effects of the June 14 oil spill on intertidal areas, aiming to understand its impact on biodiversity.

The national plan was announced by Minister for National Development Desmond Lee on 8 October 2024, during a marine science workshop held at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

This initiative will involve multiple local institutions, including the National Parks Board (NParks), St John’s Island National Marine Laboratory, and the National Institute of Education (NIE).

The research team will focus on monitoring the impact of the oil spill on various intertidal areas, which include East Coast Park, Labrador Nature Reserve, and Sentosa.

Additionally, the study will incorporate data from beaches not directly affected by the spill, such as those at Changi Beach Park and Coney Island Park. According to NParks, this approach will enable researchers to compare data and isolate the specific impact of the oil spill on marine life.

Focus on Intertidal Biodiversity

The research involves collecting and analysing sediment samples from both affected and unaffected coastal areas.

Dr Tan Koh Siang, a principal research fellow at NUS Tropical Marine Science Institute (TMSI), highlighted the importance of the study, noting that the oil spill’s impact could range from smothering tiny organisms to disrupting their physiological functions due to exposure to toxic chemicals.

“These [organisms] have not really been looked at, so we are interested to see what effects the oil has on these communities that are not visually obvious,” Dr Tan said.

The process will include sieving sediment samples to identify and count various invertebrates, such as small crustaceans, worms, and molluscs. These data will provide insights into the community structure of these organisms, forming a baseline for future studies on environmental changes and the resilience of Singapore’s coastal ecosystems.

Details of the Oil Spill

The June 14 oil spill occurred when the Netherlands-flagged dredger Vox Maxima collided with the stationary bunker vessel Marine Honour at Pasir Panjang Terminal.

The incident resulted in the release of approximately 400 tonnes of low-sulphur fuel oil into the sea.

The spill subsequently spread to several biodiversity-rich areas along Singapore’s southern coast, including Sentosa, Labrador Nature Reserve, the Southern Islands, and East Coast Park. By 16 June, the oil was sighted off the coast of Changi as well.

The spill coincided with a marine heatwave, which had led to a bleaching event affecting about 40% of hard corals in the shallow waters of the Southern Islands.

This overlap between the oil spill and environmental stressors like increased sea-surface temperatures has made monitoring efforts more crucial, as the long-term impact on local marine life could be compounded.

Extended Monitoring and Marine Environment Sensing Network

In addition to sediment sampling, researchers plan to leverage existing research initiatives, such as the Marine Environment Sensing Network (MESN).

This project involves deploying research buoys that monitor seawater conditions, including temperature, salinity, acidity levels, and nutrient concentrations.

Currently, one buoy is deployed off St John’s Island, with plans to install two more in the coming months.

Dr Jani Tanzil, facility director of St John’s Island National Marine Laboratory, noted that this data would help in understanding environmental changes and could differentiate between the ecological impacts of the oil spill and other disturbances like the heatwave.

Minister for National Development Desmond Lee at a marine science workshop held at the National University of Singapore (NUS)

Government Response and Recovery Efforts

Minister Desmond Lee emphasized the need for sustained monitoring efforts to assess both the immediate and longer-term effects of the oil spill.

“While there’s been no significant impact on our marine biodiversity observed thus far, there could be a time lag between the incidence of the oil spill and its effect on biodiversity… We need to continue to monitor the impact, and the recovery, of our marine habitats,” he said.

The data from this monitoring phase will inform potential mitigation and restoration strategies, helping to protect biodiversity-rich areas along Singapore’s coastlines. These efforts will be vital in guiding the recovery of affected ecosystems and ensuring that similar incidents are managed effectively in the future.

Clean-Up Operations 

In the weeks following the spill, Singapore undertook extensive clean-up efforts.

On 3 September 2024, Grace Fu, Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, shared an update on Instagram, stating, “I am happy to share that we have completed our clean-up at public spaces from the effects of the oil spill that happened on 14th June. 800 cleaning personnel, 2,300 volunteers, 3,750 tonnes of debris later, we have completed the task for cleaning, ahead of schedule! 💪”

In August 2024, Dennis Tan Lip Fong, Member of Parliament for Hougang SMC, inquired about the status of beach and coastal clean-up operations during a parliamentary session. Minister Grace Fu provided an update, stating that the clean-up is progressing well, with some beaches reopening for activities. The first phase of the operation has concluded, while the second phase focuses on areas with oil trapped deeper in the sand and more challenging spots like rock bunds and breakwaters. Volunteer efforts are also being mobilised to accelerate the reopening of beaches, with the clean-up expected to complete within a month.

However, when pressed for details on clean-up costs and the financial impact on local businesses, Minister Grace Fu noted that the government has yet to finalise expense calculations. She added that the immediate focus remains on completing the clean-up operations and restoring normalcy to affected coastal areas.

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