• About Us
    • Fact Checking Policy
    • Ownership & funding information
    • Volunteer
  • Subscribe
  • Letter submission
    • Submissions Policy
  • Contact Us
The Online Citizen Asia
  • Opinion
    • Editorial
    • Commentaries
    • Letters
    • Comments
  • Current Affairs
    • Singapore
    • Malaysia
    • Indonesia
    • China
    • ASEAN
    • Asia
    • International
  • Finance
    • Economics
    • Labour
    • Property
    • Business
  • Community
    • Arts & Culture
    • Consumer Watch
    • NGO
    • Lifestyle
    • Travel
  • Politics
    • Civil Society
    • Parliament
    • Transport
    • Education
    • Environment
    • Health
    • Housing
  • Law & Order
    • Legislation
    • Court Cases
No Result
View All Result
  • Opinion
    • Editorial
    • Commentaries
    • Letters
    • Comments
  • Current Affairs
    • Singapore
    • Malaysia
    • Indonesia
    • China
    • ASEAN
    • Asia
    • International
  • Finance
    • Economics
    • Labour
    • Property
    • Business
  • Community
    • Arts & Culture
    • Consumer Watch
    • NGO
    • Lifestyle
    • Travel
  • Politics
    • Civil Society
    • Parliament
    • Transport
    • Education
    • Environment
    • Health
    • Housing
  • Law & Order
    • Legislation
    • Court Cases
No Result
View All Result
The Online Citizen Asia
No Result
View All Result

Round-up of Certificate of Entitlement in 2014

by onlinecitizen
18/12/2014
in Commentaries
Reading Time: 7 mins read
8

By COE SG charts
Not all quotas went up, future bumper crop of COEs unlikely
2014 saw a rise in the annual quotas for the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) in the different categories of Cat A (mass-market cars), Cat B (luxury cars) and Cat C (commercial vehicles). Despite the quota increase, however, COE prices underwent a slight moderation but prices have not fallen to pre-2011 levels. This indicates that there is a persistent and pent-up demand for car ownership in Singapore.
The annual quotas and average prices of each category are shown in the following charts. The average price is computed by averaging the COE quota premium across the 24 bidding rounds in a year. All data can be found in this Google Spreadsheet.
Quotas and Prices – Cat A (mass-market cars)
A
The quota for Cat A increased from 8,534 last year to 12,230 (43% increase). The average price of a Cat A COE is $67,675, which is lower than 2013 ($74,690).
However, just four years ago in 2010, the average price of a Cat A COE was $30,405.
Furthermore, the average price of a Cat A COE is just $5,606 less than Cat B. It is hard to imagine Cat A as a ‘mass-market’ category with a social equity purpose when its average price is 92% of Cat B.
 
Quotas and Prices – Cat B (luxury cars)
B
The quota for Cat B increased from 8,230 last year to 11,205 (36% increase). The average price of a Cat B COE is $73,282, which is lower than 2013 ($78,712).
However, just four years ago in 2010, the average price of a Cat B COE was $39,834.
 
Quotas and Prices – Cat C (commercial vehicles)
C
The quota for Cat C increased from 5,706 last year to 6,618 (16% increase). The average price of a Cat C COE is $50,768, which is lower than 2013 ($60,342).
However, just four years ago in 2010, the average price of a Cat C COE was $29,788. The average price of a Cat C COE is $22,514 less than Cat B (still a sizeable 69% of Cat B’s average price).
High Cat C prices may see businesses transferring the costs to consumers, and place a strain on Small-to-Medium Enterprises (SMEs), such as school bus operators. Specific questions on this topic were sidestepped in Parliament.
 
Quotas and Prices – Cat D (motorcycles)
D
Cat D prices sky-rocketed to $4,800 in October. This is the highest on record since the Vehicle Quota System started in 1990 [PDF]. At the beginning of the year, Cat D prices climbed steadily to the $4,000 mark and remained around that level since March.
Just one year ago, the average price of a Cat D COE was $1,757. Now, the average price has more than doubled to $4,027 (2.3 times). Before 2014, the last time Cat D prices have exceeded the $4,000 mark was in 1995, almost 20 years ago.
What caused the wild price swing in Cat D?
The National Environment Agency (NEA) had announced in March 2013 that the emission standards for all new motorcycles will be raised to the Euro III standard from October. People rushed to buy because a Euro III compliant motorcycle typically costs 20% to 30% more than the Euro I models.
To make things worse, the Cat D quota shrunk by 30% (quota plunged from 12,149 last year to 8,501). This also affected dealers who were given 18 months to clear their old Euro I stock. Thus, Cat D prices were driven up by the double whammy of reduced COE quota and panic buying ahead of the new emission standards.
 
Quotas and Prices – Cat E (open category)
E
The quota for Cat E decreased from 6,247 last year to 6,031 (3% decrease). The average price of a Cat C COE is $73,436, which is lower than 2013 ($80,278). However, just four years ago in 2010, the average price of a Cat C COE was $41,424. As a Cat E COE can be used for any vehicle type, it is typically used for luxury cars in Cat B. Thus, Cat B and Cat E usually have comparable prices.
 
Bumper Crop of COEs Unlikely
Despite this year’s quota increments, current quota levels are still a far cry from the bumper crop of COEs in the last decade. It’s not tenable for Singapore to grow its vehicle population at the breakneck pace of yesteryears.
From 1999 to 2008, the vehicle population grew by 30% from 670,000 to 872,000 [PDF]. After this period of heady growth, the Ministry of Transport has kept a tight lid on the number of vehicles on the road.
Since 2009, the vehicle population stayed in the range of 902,000 – 932,000 [PDF]. The following tables compare the COE quota levels under different Transport Ministers.
Annual Quotas under Mr Lui Tuck Yew (2011 onwards) vs. Mr Yeow Cheow Tong (2001 – 2006)
annual quota 1
Annual Quotas under Mr Lui Tuck Yew (2011 onwards) vs. Mr Raymond Lim (2006 – 2011)
annual quota 2
The data shows that there has been a general decline in quota levels since 2006; it took two Transport Ministers to rein in the burgeoning vehicle population after Mr Yeow Cheow Tong.
The quota reductions began when Mr Raymond Lim took over as the Transport Minister in 2006. But in his first three years in office (2006 – 2008), there seemed to be some reluctance to cut quotas as quota levels still remained high. Quota reductions (and the resultant price ascent) became more dramatic from 2009.
Quotas are determined based on three key parameters: (1) vehicle population growth rate; (2) actual deregistrations; and (3) other adjustments. Two of the three parameters, vehicle population growth rate and adjustments, are set by the Ministry of Transport. 2009 was an important milestone as the Ministry further tightened COE quotas by halving the vehicle population growth rate from 3% to 1.5%.
Since February 2013, the vehicle population growth rate has shrunk even further to 0.5%, one-sixth of its original value.
Net increase allowed – Percentage of vehicle population per annum

  • May 2000 – April 2009: 3.0%
  • May 2009 – July 2012: 1.5%
  • August 2012 – January 2013: 1.0%
  • February 2013 – January 2015: 0.5%

Interestingly, quota adjustments made to correct for over-projections that preceded the current Transport Minister. There was a total adjustment of -17,558 for over-projections in Quota Years 2008 and 2009, as well as expired COEs from 2009.
These adjustments were administered over a period of five years to smoothen the impact. An adjustment of -12,769 was made in the quota from April 2010 to July 2012. All remaining adjustments have been made in the quota from August 2013 to January 2015.
Finally, quotas are also determined by vehicle deregistrations every quarter. COE holders can deregister their vehicles anytime before the COE expires in ten years, or they could renew the COE in the tenth year without bidding for a new one. The LTA recycles deregistrations back into the new pool of COEs for bidding.
Hence, the more deregistrations there are in a given year, the higher the COE quota. Let’s examine the deregistration data in 2014 and compare that to the quotas in 2004:
deregistration
*Deregistration data for the October – December 2014 period is not available yet.Source: LTA, Overview of Vehicle Quota System, Quota Allocation
The majority of the COEs awarded in 2004 was not deregistered this year. The low number of deregistrations is one reason why the 2014 quota is only a fraction of 2004’s bumper crop. Similarly, the quotas for 2012 and 2013 are nowhere near the quota levels 10 years before. Combine the low deregistration rate and the throttled vehicle population growth rate, it is unlikely that future quotas will ever return to the COE bonanza of the last decade.
 

For just US$7.50 a month, sign up as a subscriber on The Online Citizen Asia (and enjoy ads-free experience on our site) to support our mission to transform TOC into an alternative mainstream press.
Tags: COE

Related Posts

Current Affairs

Category C vehicles fall to 50,000 mark

06/05/2015
Current Affairs

Yet another high record set for COE of motorcycles

23/04/2015
Current Affairs

Price of motorcycle COE hits another new high

18/02/2015
Current Affairs

Historical new high for Cat D COE

04/02/2015
Current Affairs

COE announcement for January 1st bidding exercise

09/01/2015
Current Affairs

COE: Yo-yo price effect observed for COE prices for CAT C vehicles.

20/11/2014
Subscribe
Connect withD
Login
I allow to create an account
When you login first time using a Social Login button, we collect your account public profile information shared by Social Login provider, based on your privacy settings. We also get your email address to automatically create an account for you in our website. Once your account is created, you'll be logged-in to this account.
DisagreeAgree
Notify of
Connect withD
I allow to create an account
When you login first time using a Social Login button, we collect your account public profile information shared by Social Login provider, based on your privacy settings. We also get your email address to automatically create an account for you in our website. Once your account is created, you'll be logged-in to this account.
DisagreeAgree
8 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Latest posts

Myanmar junta imposes tough new measures on resistance strongholds

03/02/2023
Malaysia High Court dismissed DPM Zahid’s application to get passport returned permanently

Malaysia High Court dismissed DPM Zahid’s application to get passport returned permanently

03/02/2023
Why is Gautam Adani’s Indian empire in turmoil?

Adani turmoil a key test for Modi’s India Inc

03/02/2023
Kajang cops chided for denying woman access to police HQ because she was wearing shorts

Kajang cops chided for denying woman access to police HQ because she was wearing shorts

03/02/2023
Adani’s brother runs SG company and registers as director with local ID

Adani’s brother runs SG company and registers as director with local ID

03/02/2023
Minister Tan See Leng only reveals 500 intra-corporate transferees from India for last year – a Covid year

Increasing number of working Permanent Residents in Singapore but with a stable PR population

03/02/2023

A multi-party parliament is the only way to make sure that Singapore continues to not condone or tolerate corruption

03/02/2023
Anwar criticised over appointing own daughter as his senior advisor

Anwar criticised over appointing own daughter as his senior advisor

03/02/2023

Trending posts

Former Singaporean shares change of life in Australia with annual pay of S$80,000 as a plumber

Former Singaporean shares change of life in Australia with annual pay of S$80,000 as a plumber

by Yee Loon
30/01/2023
25

...

Earning only S$400 a month, delivery-rider turned hawker threw in the towel after two years of running a rojak stall

Earning only S$400 a month, delivery-rider turned hawker threw in the towel after two years of running a rojak stall

by Yee Loon
26/01/2023
24

...

They have done a fine job of confusing us about the jobs situation

They have done a fine job of confusing us about the jobs situation

by Augustine Low
01/02/2023
36

...

Two Indian nationals paid about S$330 and S$730 respectively for forged certificates submitted in their S-Pass application

MOM found issuing EPs meant for foreign PMETs to PRC waitress and general worker

by Correspondent
26/01/2023
41

...

Singapore warns slower economic growth in 2023

Less than 1 in 10 jobs created in first three quarters of 2022 went to Singaporeans?

by Leong Szehian
28/01/2023
69

...

Excessively charging for an essential need, and calling it affordable because people still can pay for it?

by Terry Xu
31/01/2023
39

...

December 2014
M T W T F S S
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031  
« Nov   Jan »

The Online Citizen is a regional online publication based in Taiwan and formerly Singapore’s longest-running independent online media platform.

Navigation

  • Editorial
  • Commentaries
  • Opinion
  • Politics
  • Community

Support

  • Contact Us
  • Letter submission
  • Membership subscription

Follow Us

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Instagram
  • Fact Checking Policy
  • Privacy Policy

© 2022 - 2023 The Online Citizen Asia

No Result
View All Result
  • Opinion
    • Editorial
    • Commentaries
    • Comments
  • Current Affairs
    • Malaysia
    • Indonesia
    • China
    • ASEAN
    • Asia
    • International
  • Finance
    • Economics
    • Labour
    • Property
    • Business
  • Community
    • Civil Society
    • Arts & Culture
    • Consumer Watch
    • NGO
  • Politics
    • Parliament
    • Transport
    • Education
    • Environment
    • Health
    • Housing
  • Law & Order
    • Legislation
    • Court Cases
  • Lifestyle
    • Travel
  • Subscribers login

© 2022 - 2023 The Online Citizen Asia

wpDiscuz