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IPS-TW analysis on CPF – unaddressed issue of retirement adequacy

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The research team - Mark Whatley (Towers Watson, Singapore), Christopher Gee (Institute of Policy Studies) and Peter Ryan-Kane (Towers Watson, Hong Kong).

The research team – Mark Whatley (Towers Watson, Singapore), Christopher Gee (Institute of Policy Studies) and Peter Ryan-Kane (Towers Watson, Hong Kong).

By Howard Lee
It is important to understand that, when the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) and Towers Watson (TW) jointly published the paper on the investment risk on Singapore’s retirement financing scheme, there is actually a lot more that the paper does not say than what it professes to affirm.
Let’s start, however, with the one thing that the paper make no qualms about claiming. Through extensive evaluation and comparison with other investment plans, the IPS-Towers Watson team proposed that the average Singaporean is better off leaving money with the Central Provident Fund (CPF) rather than park it in other forms of investment.
This analysis was evidently made to debunk some claims that the team noticed in “online commentary” that suggested CPF members might be short-changed on interest rates, and that better returns might be had if they were to invest their retirement funds in other portfolios, such as in government bonds.
TW’s analysis, based on the company’s historical data, is that this is hardly true, as their calculations indicated that, over a long duration of 20 years (easily what CPF members would see as the point of “maturity” of their portfolio), the CPF system presents moderately high level of returns with minimally risk, which compares favourably to other investment schemes.
CPF cumulative returns

CPF returns compared to other investment portfolios, and the likelihood of its performance. (Image – IPS-TW paper)

Even something as “safe” as government bonds might not compare as favourably to CPF, the report indicated. “Based on TW’s assumptions, there is very limited benefit to the CPF member from investing the funds in a portfolio of Singapore Government or Global bonds as the expected return is lower and the risk (standard deviation) is significantly higher than is currently offered to CPF members via the current fixed rate arrangements.”
CPF’s risk-return quotients, as compared to other forms of investment. (Image - IPS-TW)

CPF’s risk-return quotients, as compared to other forms of investment. (Image – IPS-TW)

“With the analysis presented we believe that the Government offers the CPF members an attractive benefit, given the member is not exposed to downside risk, over the long term compared to other investment opportunities available,” said the report.
Indeed, the returns offered by to CPF members through their Ordinary, Special and Retirement Accounts altogether make for a good investment portfolio, indicates the report. This is because the Singapore government effectively guarantees the rates offered to these accounts. Compared to other investment schemes, while not outstanding in the short term, these interest rates end up more profitable in the longer term.
“Our paper finds that the low-risk, very stable returns offered by the CPF are attractive as compared to those that may be generated by investing in a portfolio of 60% equities, 40% bonds – what we have termed a balanced portfolio that an independent financial advisor may recommend to an investor seeking a reasonable risk-return trade-off,” said Mr Peter Ryan-Kane, TW’s head of portfolio advisory in Asia Pacific. “On a 20-year view, based on a reasonable set of assumptions, the average CPF member is simulated to generate returns similar to this balanced portfolio, but would be exposed to significantly less risk.”
Now, we have no reason to doubt TW. The company has extensive experience in the study of investments and have the historical data to back up their claims. Yet, before the good people at the CPF Board give themselves a huge pat on the back for such a wonderful scheme and a year-end bonus to boot, the IPS-WT report must be put in perspective.
So long as the money stays in the account…
First, the study focused mainly on the accumulation phase, not the “decumulation” phase or withdrawals. In other words, the study assumes that, if a CPF member has money in the various accounts, it will grow positively. It does not consider the rather real and bleak situation that some might not even have money in their CPF accounts, for reasons ranging from paying for housing, healthcare, education, other forms of investment under the CPF Investment Scheme, or even loss of income.
And that is actually the key issue of the CPF system that we have today – that it is being used up for other purposes that undercut its ability to serve as an effective retirement nest egg. Nevertheless, retirement adequacy was not on the team’s charter for the report.
“We have not considered withdrawals for various purposes in this paper, because these withdrawals expose the CPF member to significantly different risk and return profiles that are extremely complex,” said Mr Christopher Gee, research fellow at IPS. “For withdrawals made from CPF for housing for instance, the risks/returns that a member is exposed to cannot be readily compared with the investment returns generated within the CPF or through market returns – for example, a balanced 60:40 portfolio.”
Can we expect a better analysis on this, given that housing is one of the key drains to CPF members’ accounts? “We have described some of these housing investment risks in the paper, and we contemplate looking further into the housing withdrawal issue in our follow-on research,” said Mr Gee.
So long as it stays under SSGS and current policies…
It is also worth noting that the rates that are “guaranteed” for all CPF account holders come about because of “CPF assets are for the most part invested in Special Singapore Government Securities (SSGS)”. The team has described this to be one of the key reasons why CPF members are participating in a low-risk retirement fund, although the dotted-line link to GIC Pte Ltd, an organisation shrouded in opacity, would give some very little assurance.
“CPF funds are not managed by GIC,” said Mr Gee. “CPF funds are invested in SSGS – which are essentially IOUs issued by the government – that pay interest at rates pegged to those payable into CPF members’ OA and SMRA.  The proceeds from the SSGS are combined with other funds from the issue of standard Singapore Government Securities, and placed with the Monetary Authority of Singapore together with other government assets. Periodically, transfers are made from all of these co-mingled funds to the GIC to invest for the long-term. Because of the government’s other assets, Singapore’s credit standing is assessed amongst the highest in the world.”
“The way in which the GIC manages its funds is therefore a separate matter of overall governance and its responsibility to its client, the Singapore government,” said Mr Gee.
Notably, in taking this position, the team would not be addressing the various “online commentaries” that suggest CPF funds might have been lost in toxic investment made by GIC.
“It is not part of the scope of this paper to assess the management of assets at any Singapore Government entity,” said Mr Ryan-Kane.
Concern more pressing than “assured” returns
In effect, the report paints a positive outlook for CPF as a retirement fund, but the reality of the situation for the average CPF member is very different, who actively make withdrawals on CPF accounts for a variety of things. For the bulk of citizens, most of these withdrawals is to pay for the roof currently over our heads, rather than in property as any form of “investment”.
The IPS-TW paper might actually a say a lot about how CPF performs as an investment fund, but very little in how it performs as a retirement fund. The positive projections are still too ideal for the man on the street, who would likely experience a very different set of issues, including job security (which determines fund accumulation) and rising cost of living (which determines fund “decumulation”).
So while the IPS-TW might have satisfied “online commentary” that suggests our money can grow better if parked elsewhere – which also assumes that SSGS would not turn toxic on us for any reason, and if so that the government will continue to underwrite any such loss – what matters more to the average CPF member is the adequacy of CPF to see us through to the end of life. That is actually more telling of the effectiveness of the CPF system, which this paper has not made a point to address, nor is it expected to.

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Lim Tean criticizes Govt’s rejection of basic income report, urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Lim Tean, leader of Peoples Voice (PV), criticizes the government’s defensive response to the basic living income report, accusing it of avoiding reality.

He calls on citizens to assess affordability and choose MPs who can truly enhance their lives in the upcoming election.

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SINGAPORE: A recently published report, “Minimum Income Standard 2023: Household Budgets in a Time of Rising Costs,” unveils figures detailing the necessary income households require to maintain a basic standard of living, using the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) method.

The newly released study, spearheaded by Dr Ng Kok Hoe of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) specifically focuses on working-age households in 2021 and presents the latest MIS budgets, adjusted for inflation from 2020 to 2022.

The report detailed that:

  • The “reasonable starting point” for a living wage in Singapore was S$2,906 a month.
  • A single parent with a child aged two to six required S$3,218 per month.
  • Partnered parents with two children, one aged between seven and 12 and the other between 13 and 18, required S$6,426 a month.
  • A single elderly individual required S$1,421 a month.
  • Budgets for both single and partnered parent households averaged around S$1,600 per member. Given recent price inflation, these figures have risen by up to 5% in the current report.

Singapore Govt challenges MIS 2023 report’s representation of basic needs

Regrettably, on Thursday (14 Sept), the Finance Ministry (MOF), Manpower Ministry (MOM), and Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF) jointly issued a statement dismissing the idea suggested by the report, claiming that minimum household income requirements amid inflation “might not accurately reflect basic needs”.

Instead, they claimed that findings should be seen as “what individuals would like to have.”, and further defended their stances for the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) and other measures to uplift lower-wage workers.

The government argued that “a universal wage floor is not necessarily the best way” to ensure decent wages for lower-wage workers.

The government’s statement also questions the methodology of the Minimum Income Standards (MIS) report, highlighting limitations such as its reliance on respondent profiles and group dynamics.

“The MIS approach used is highly dependent on respondent profiles and on group dynamics. As the focus groups included higher-income participants, the conclusions may not be an accurate reflection of basic needs.”

The joint statement claimed that the MIS approach included discretionary expenditure items such as jewellery, perfumes, and overseas holidays.

Lim Tean slams Government’s response to basic living income report

In response to the government’s defensive reaction to the recent basic living income report, Lim Tean, leader of the alternative party Peoples Voice (PV), strongly criticizes the government’s apparent reluctance to confront reality, stating, “It has its head buried in the sand”.

He strongly questioned the government’s endorsement of the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) as a means to uplift the living standards of the less fortunate in Singapore, describing it as a misguided approach.

In a Facebook video on Friday (15 Sept), Lim Tean highlighted that it has become a global norm, especially in advanced and first-world countries, to establish a minimum wage, commonly referred to as a living wage.

“Everyone is entitled to a living wage, to have a decent life, It is no use boasting that you are one of the richest countries in the world that you have massive reserves, if your citizens cannot have a decent life with a decent living wage.”

Lim Tean cited his colleague, Leong Sze Hian’s calculations, which revealed a staggering 765,800 individuals in Singapore, including Permanent Residents and citizens, may not earn the recommended living wage of $2,906, as advised by the MIS report.

“If you take away the migrant workers or the foreign workers, and take away those who do not work, underage, are children you know are unemployed, and the figure is staggering, isn’t it?”

“You know you are looking at a very substantial percentage of the workforce that do not have sufficient income to meet basic needs, according to this report.”

He reiterated that the opposition parties, including the People’s Voice and the People’s Alliance, have always called for a minimum wage, a living wage which the government refuses to countenance.

Scepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs

In a time of persistently high inflation, Lim Tean expressed skepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs.

He cautioned against believing in predictions of imminent inflation reduction and lower interest rates below 2%, labeling them as unrealistic.

Lim Tean urged Singaporeans to assess their own affordability in these challenging times, especially with the impending GST increase.

He warned that a 1% rise in GST could lead to substantial hikes in everyday expenses, particularly food prices.

Lim Tean expressed concern that the PAP had become detached from the financial struggles of everyday Singaporeans, citing their high salaries and perceived insensitivity to the common citizen’s plight.

Lim Tean urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Highlighting the importance of the upcoming election, Lim Tean recommended that citizens seriously evaluate the affordability of their lives.

“If you ask yourself about affordability, you will realise that you have no choice, In the coming election, but to vote in a massive number of opposition Members of Parliament, So that they can make a difference.”

Lim Tean emphasized the need to move beyond the traditional notion of providing checks and balances and encouraged voters to consider who could genuinely improve their lives.

“To me, the choice is very simple. It is whether you decide to continue with a life, that is going to become more and more expensive: More expensive housing, higher cost of living, jobs not secure because of the massive influx of foreign workers,” he declared.

“Or you choose members of Parliament who have your interests at heart and who want to make your lives better.”

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Political observers call for review of Singapore’s criteria of Presidential candidates and propose 5 year waiting period for political leaders

Singaporean political observers express concern over the significantly higher eligibility criteria for private-sector presidential candidates compared to public-sector candidates, calling for adjustments.

Some also suggest a five year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before allowed to partake in the presidential election.

Notably, The Workers’ Party has earlier reiterated its position that the current qualification criteria favor PAP candidates and has called for a return to a ceremonial presidency instead of an elected one.

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While the 2023 Presidential Election in Singapore concluded on Friday (1 September), discussions concerning the fairness and equity of the electoral system persist.

Several political observers contend that the eligibility criteria for private-sector individuals running for president are disproportionately high compared to those from the public sector, and they propose that adjustments be made.

They also recommend a five-year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before being allowed to participate in the presidential election.

Aspiring entrepreneur George Goh Ching Wah, announced his intention to in PE 2023 in June. However, His application as a candidate was unsuccessful, he failed to receive the Certificate of Eligibility (COE) on 18 August.

Mr Goh had expressed his disappointment in a statement after the ELD’s announcement, he said, the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) took a very narrow interpretation of the requirements without explaining the rationale behind its decision.

As per Singapore’s Constitution, individuals running for the presidency from the private sector must have a minimum of three years’ experience as a CEO in a company.

This company should have consistently maintained an average shareholders’ equity of at least S$500 million and sustained profitability.

Mr Goh had pursued eligibility through the private sector’s “deliberative track,” specifically referring to section 19(4)(b)(2) of the Singapore Constitution.

He pointed out five companies he had led for over three years, collectively claiming a shareholders’ equity of S$1.521 billion.

Notably, prior to the 2016 revisions, the PEC might have had the authority to assess Mr Goh’s application similarly to how it did for Mr Tan Jee Say in the 2011 Presidential Election.

Yet, in its current formulation, the PEC is bound by the definitions laid out in the constitution.

Calls for equitable standards across public and private sectors

According to Singapore’s Chinese media outlet, Shin Min Daily News, Dr Felix Tan Thiam Kim, a political analyst at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore, noted that in 2016, the eligibility criteria for private sector candidates were raised from requiring them to be executives of companies with a minimum capital of S$100 million to CEOs of companies with at least S$500 million in shareholder equity.

However, the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates remained unchanged. He suggests that there is room for adjusting the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates.

Associate Professor Bilver Singh, Deputy Head of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, believes that the constitutional requirements for private-sector individuals interested in running are excessively stringent.

He remarked, “I believe it is necessary to reassess the relevant regulations.”

He points out that the current regulations are more favourable for former public officials seeking office and that the private sector faces notably greater challenges.

“While it may be legally sound, it may not necessarily be equitable,” he added.

Proposed five-year waiting period for political leaders eyeing presidential race

Moreover, despite candidates severing ties with their political parties in pursuit of office, shedding their political affiliations within a short timeframe remains a challenging endeavour.

A notable instance is Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who resigned from the People’s Action Party (PAP) just slightly over a month before announcing his presidential candidacy, sparking considerable debate.

During a live broadcast, his fellow contender, Ng Kok Song, who formerly served as the Chief Investment Officer of GIC, openly questioned Mr Tharman’s rapid transition to a presidential bid shortly after leaving his party and government.

Dr Felix Tan suggests that in the future, political leaders aspiring to run for the presidency should not only resign from their parties but also adhere to a mandatory waiting period of at least five years before entering the race.

Cherian George and Kevin Y.L. Tan: “illogical ” to raise the corporate threshold in 2016

Indeed, the apprehension regarding the stringent eligibility criteria and concerns about fairness in presidential candidacy requirements are not limited to political analysts interviewed by Singapore’s mainstream media.

Prior to PE2023, CCherian George, a Professor of media studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, and Kevin Y.L. Tan, an Adjunct Professor at both the Faculty of Law of the National University of Singapore and the NTU’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), brought attention to the challenges posed by the qualification criteria for candidates vying for the Singaporean Presidency.

In their article titled “Why Singapore’s Next Elected President Should be One of its Last,” the scholars discussed the relevance of the current presidential election system in Singapore and floated the idea of returning to an appointed President, emphasizing the symbolic and unifying role of the office.

They highlighted that businessman George Goh appeared to be pursuing the “deliberative track” for qualification, which requires candidates to satisfy the PEC that their experience and abilities are comparable to those of a typical company’s chief executive with shareholder equity of at least S$500 million.

Mr Goh cobbles together a suite of companies under his management to meet the S$500m threshold.

The article also underscored the disparities between the eligibility criteria for candidates from the public and private sectors, serving as proxies for evaluating a candidate’s experience in handling complex financial matters.

“It is hard to see what financial experience the Chairman of the Public Service Commission or for that matter, the Chief Justice has, when compared to a Minister or a corporate chief.”

“The raising of the corporate threshold in 2016 is thus illogical and serves little purpose other than to simply reduce the number of potentially eligible candidates.”

The article also touches upon the issue of candidates’ independence from political parties, particularly the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

It mentions that candidates are expected to be non-partisan and independent, and it questions how government-backed candidates can demonstrate their independence given their previous affiliations.

The Workers’ Party advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency

It comes as no surprise that Singapore’s alternative party, the Workers’ Party, reaffirmed its stance on 30 August, asserting that they believe the existing qualifying criteria for presidential candidates are skewed in favour of those approved by the People’s Action Party (PAP).

They argue that the current format of the elected presidency (EP) undermines the principles of parliamentary democracy.

“It also serves as an unnecessary source of gridlock – one that could potentially cripple a non-PAP government within its first term – and is an alternative power centre that could lead to political impasses.”

Consistently, the Workers’ Party has been vocal about its objection to the elected presidency and has consistently called for its abolition.

Instead, they advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency, a position they have maintained for over three decades.

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