Why Wong remains noncommittal on election date despite approaching deadline?

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong addressed speculation about Singapore’s next General Election date during a recent press conference, confirming that the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) has not yet been convened and that no decision has been made regarding the timing of next year’s election.

Although Wong stated that developments would be announced transparently, some question how much advance notice the government will provide.

Historically, the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) has given limited notice for elections. For instance, in five of Singapore’s past 13 elections, the EBRC’s formation was not announced until after its boundary report was released, often catching opposition parties off guard, especially when single-member constituencies are merged into neighbouring group representative constituencies.

In the last four elections, the time between the release of the EBRC report and Parliament’s dissolution has varied widely, from 32 to 102 days, with an extreme case in 2001 when Parliament was dissolved just a day after the report’s release.

This unpredictability makes it challenging for opposition parties to prepare adequately. Given Wong’s tight timeline for holding the election, observers question why he cannot commit to a date now, with less than a year remaining.

Constitutional Limits and the Election Process

Under Section 65 of the Singapore Constitution, Parliament must be dissolved within five years of its first sitting. The current Parliament, which first sat on 24 August 2020, must therefore be dissolved by 23 August 2025.

Section 66 mandates that a General Election must be held within three months of Parliament’s dissolution, setting the latest possible polling date at November 2025.

However, Singapore’s elections have historically been held relatively soon after Parliament’s dissolution, typically within nine days, and rarely approach the maximum three-month timeframe—the closest being the 1997 election, where Parliament had to be dissolved by 5 January 1997 but was dissolved only on 16 December 1996.

This trend suggests that an election date close to August 2025 is more probable than one in November.

Estimating the Timeline Based on Past Practices

To estimate likely dates for the upcoming election, it’s helpful to consider Singapore’s established election scheduling patterns.

Typically, after Parliament is dissolved, nomination day—marking the start of the official campaign period—follows within seven to eight days. The campaign period itself spans nine to ten days, ending with polling day.

Using this historical timeline, if Parliament dissolves by 20 August 2025, a likely polling date would fall in early September, with Saturday, 6 September 2025, emerging as the most probable choice.

Holding the election on this date would be consistent with Singapore’s practice of polling on Saturdays and would allow the PAP to benefit from a shorter preparation window for opposition parties.

The Role of SG60 and the National Day Rally

The timing of the next General Election is also likely influenced by Singapore’s 60th anniversary of independence (SG60) in 2025.

Celebrations surrounding National Day on 9 August would provide the PAP with a high-profile platform to showcase government achievements, particularly through the National Day Rally.

Traditionally held on the Sunday following National Day, this Rally would offer Prime Minister Wong a prime opportunity to address the nation one last time before the election, underscoring the government’s successes and future plans in light of this historic anniversary.

While Wong could technically hold an election before the National Day Rally, after the budget is passed in March, it’s more likely he would want to maximise SG60’s impact by addressing Singaporeans at the Rally, even if this brings him close to the limit of the current Parliament’s term.

This schedule mirrors the approach taken in the 2015 General Election, where the PAP leveraged national celebrations and positive budget announcements to boost public support. However, this time, there won’t be a factor like the passing of a founding minister, as with Lee Kuan Yew, to stir mass sympathy and support from voters.

Budget 2025: Potential for an “Election Budget”

Prime Minister Wong has shared preliminary insights into Budget 2025, indicating it will focus on economic stability, job security, and support for the “sandwiched generation.”

Although Wong has downplayed suggestions of an “election budget,” its timing—especially if it is presented close to the election—could significantly influence voter sentiment.

The government’s emphasis on addressing urgent issues and highlighting SG60’s significance could help create a favourable climate for the PAP. The possibility of SG60 cash vouchers and other support measures could help ease cost-of-living concerns for voters, further positioning the PAP advantageously.

Implications of Wong’s Delayed Announcement

Wong’s noncommittal approach to the election date may limit flexibility due to the tight timeframe, but it could still create challenges for opposition parties trying to prepare effectively.

Opposition candidates, many of whom do not hold official appointments, may need to take extended leave to campaign in their wards, making advance notice crucial.

In recent years, the ruling party has been notably opaque on this process, prompting opposition parties to raise repeated questions in Parliament regarding the EBRC’s status.

For example, Workers’ Party MP Pritam Singh asked on 8 July 2019 if the EBRC had been convened, to which Minister Chan Chun Sing replied no. Yet the EBRC was formed shortly after on 1 August 2019 without announcement, and then-Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong only publicly disclosed it on 4 September.

While Wong has dismissed the idea of an “election budget,” his focus on job security, cost of living, and economic growth is likely to resonate with a broad base of voters. By presenting these as national priorities, Wong reinforces his leadership and the PAP’s standing, casting them in a favourable light as the election approaches.

Furthermore, although Minister Chan Chun Sing stated during a parliamentary motion to review the boundary redrawing process that the government would aim to provide “sufficient time between the release of the EBRC’s report and the dissolution of Parliament, so that all political parties and candidates can make the necessary preparations,” past records indicate otherwise.

In the case of GE2020, the gap between the report’s release and the actual election may be attributed to a series of controversies, such as public discontent over the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), and events like the COVID-19 pandemic, which prevented the government from calling a snap election earlier in the year.

A similar situation now faces the current government, with recent scandals such as the resignation of the former Speaker of Parliament over an extramarital affair with a PAP MP, public outrage over the leasing of black-and-white houses by PAP ministers, and corruption charges against former Transport Minister S Iswaran.

Concluding Observations

Based on constitutional requirements, historical election patterns, and the likely alignment with SG60 celebrations, all signs point to a polling day on 6 September 2025, with Parliament dissolved around 20 August.

This timeline, reinforced by the 60th anniversary of Singapore’s independence and the PAP’s consistent approach to election timing, makes it possible to deduce these probable dates through constitutional and historical analysis.

So, the question remains: how much can voters trust a Prime Minister who refrains from committing to a date, even when it’s clear to most when the election will likely take place? And what else might he be keeping from us?