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Do we even need T5 as planned?

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by Brad Bowyer

Singapore’s Changi Airport averaged a little over 5.46 million passengers and 32,000 flights per month in 2018.

Before Jewel, it had an annual passenger handling load of 82m which has now been expanded to 85m so it was running at around 65.5m or 77% capacity. Although as most of us can attest it seems pretty empty most of the time when we are there so not sure if that’s entirely accurate.

According to our local air traffic controllers, our current runways are almost at full capacity (90% of est theoretical max 430,000 flights per year), but we will be adding a 3rd runway to the mix by mid-2020 that will increase that by approx. 40% according to simulations.

Why are we building such a big terminal, est 50 million passengers, when even if our expanded runways could reach a theoretical maximum capacity of 600,000 flights that would only handle around 102m passengers with current air fleets? As the A380 is being canned and bigger planes are not on the drawing board, how will the passengers arrive?

Also, why are we doing it now when we still have so much spare capacity and arrivals are only growing around 4.1% per year averaged over the last 5 years which is half of what it was the preceding 15 years. Even if that is maintained and does not drop further, we are nearly 10 years away from peak capacity… Again if that’s accurate and not under quoted.

But most of all why does it cost so much? In fact, we don’t know exactly what it will cost we are just told 10’s of Billions!

Here is a brief history of Changi Airport building costs.

  • All 4 Terminals sit on approx. 1,350 Hectares of Land
  • T1 opened in 1981 at a cost of just under $1Billion and has undergone several upgrades over the years, 1995 $170m, 1999, $420m and 2013 $500m.
  • The new Jewel extension to T1 just opened this year and cost $1.7B
  • T2 was opened in 1990 and cost $838m
  • T3 was opened in 2008 and cost $1.75B
  • T4 opened in 2017 and cost $985m

I believe that means we will have spent around $7.36B building the entire airport excluding the extra runway (which is est 2.3B more for all related contracts) when all that is added up.

(By the way, did you know Temasek bought the airport from the government for $3.28B and below book value in 2009? But that is another story)

The exact size of T5 is not known but we have variously heard its bigger than T1, 2 and 3 combined and 10 times the size of Vivo City and sits on approx. 1000 Hectares of land with a projected passenger capacity of between 50 and 70 million people.

As Vivocity is 140,000m2 let’s say T5 will be 1.4million m2 that’s 7.2 x the size of T4.

Now T4 costs are quite current so 7.2 x $985m = $7.1B as a fair estimate to build T5 right? almost the cost of the entire existing airport.

Now, of course, they will bling it up a bit as the main terminal but how much can they spend on glitz and glamour? Another $900m or being extravagant another $1.9B which is 25% more?

So, let’s say a glammed up T5 with all ancillaries’ costs $9B which is what the entire current airport cost so what are the other 10s of billions being spent on?

Every tax dollar the government spends should maximise the value for Singaporeans and should be fully accountable so can anyone explain why T5 while being smaller than the entire current airport is budgeted at unknown multiples of what that cost?

Especially when we likely can’t even land the passengers to fill it and don’t appear to need it urgently now anyway.

It’s like piecing together a jigsaw puzzle when the pieces are scattered throughout the forest but when combining the publicly available information the facts, reasoning and numbers just don’t add up? Can anyone in the aviation or construction industry enlighten me?

The Top 5 of the world’s busiest airports are in order: –

  1. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport handling 107 million passengers on 895,000 flights from 5 runways,
  2. Beijing Capital International Airport with 101 million passenger movements,
  3. Dubai International Airport handled 89 million passengers,
  4. Los Angeles International Airport with 87.5 million passengers and
  5. Tokyo’s Haneda Airport with 87.1 million passengers

Singapore is only 19th on the list and ranks behind regional airports: –

8. Hong Kong International Airport with 74.5 million passengers,
9. Shanghai Pudong International Airport with 74 million passengers
12. New Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport with 69.9 million passengers,
13. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport with 69.8 million passengers even
18. Jakarta’s Soekarno-Hatta International Airport with 66.9 million passengers

Atlanta continues to dominate the passenger market because of its location as a major connecting hub and port of entry into North America. It’s within a two-hour flight of 80% of the United States population of more than 300 million people.

The Chinese airports are growing massively because China is a booming economy and home to 18% of the world’s population and India is similar.

Indonesia’s economy has been growing at annual rates of over 5% and home to nearly 270 million people with a growing network of regional airports that hub out of Jakarta.

Contrast the above with Singapore with a population of 5.7m, a GDP rate that has been stuck in the 2% to 3% range for years and slowing and its regional air hub status being challenged and eroded by new or expanded international airports in KL, Bangkok, Manila and Jakarta and you have to ask…

Why do we need an airport with a 135m passenger capacity? Especially as I noted when our 3 runways may only be able to move enough flights for 100m anyway?

Wouldn’t it be better to build a T5 along the lines of T3 adding 20-25m capacity and even if we bling it with another Jewel equivalent won’t cost much more than $4 billion. That would bring Changi to 105-110m passenger capacity, equivalent to the world’s busiest airports and its theoretical maximum flight capacity anyway.

Then we can take the rest of the “10’s of Billions” and invest them to boost our economy and tourism industries so 100m plus people actually have a reason to come here and it provides jobs and economic opportunities for Singaporeans at the same time?

I hope someone has done some serious cost-benefit analysis and they can share it with us because from a layman’s point of view this does not seem like financial prudence or is economically justifiable by any stretch of the imagination.

Every dollar spent is a choice but where is the public accountability for these mega projects especially when the choices made don’t seem to be the most informed ones?

Will Changi airport become a giant white elephant while our economy and people continue to languish?

Oh yes, and China is opening the world’s biggest airport this year in October, built from scratch at a cost of approx. US$12B (Sgd $16B), and which has 4 runways and can handle 620,000 flights and 100m passengers. Compare that to T5 and what we get for “10’s of Billions” and think on that for a while!

This was first published on Brad Bowyer’s Facebook page and reproduced with permission.

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Media

Why was no POFMA action taken against Straits Times for wrongly linking Clementi murder suspect to grassroots?

The Straits Times wrongly linked a Clementi murder suspect to grassroots activities, a claim refuted by the People’s Association. Despite the error, no POFMA correction was issued, raising concerns about potential double standards in its application, especially compared to cases involving alternative media.

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In the aftermath of a tragic murder at Clementi on 21 October 2024, speculation and false information circulated regarding the identity of the suspect.

The Straits Times inaccurately reported that both the murder suspect and the victim were linked to the grassroots activities of the Trivelis Residents’ Network.

However, this claim was promptly refuted by the People’s Association (PA), which clarified that the suspect was not a grassroots volunteer.

The PA, which falls under the purview of the Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth (MCCY), swiftly issued a statement on 22 October confirming that while the victim had been a grassroots volunteer, the suspect had no affiliation with any PA grassroots organisation.

Despite this clear misreporting, no POFMA (Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act) correction was issued against The Straits Times.

This situation has raised questions about the consistency of POFMA’s application, particularly in light of its use in previous cases involving misinformation by alternative media outlets.

For instance, in October 2023, the Minister for Manpower directed the POFMA Office to issue correction orders to multiple platforms—including Singapore Eye, Gutzy Asia, and The Online Citizen Asia—for spreading unverified claims regarding the nationality of a suicide victim. Both Gutzy Asia and The Online Citizen Asia had relied on a report from Singapore Eye, which had wrongly identified the deceased as a Filipino domestic worker.

In this case, a case of misidentification of a domestic worker led to the immediate use of POFMA by Dr Tan See Leng to correct the error.

In another instance involving Channel News Asia (CNA), the Housing Development Board (HDB) simply alerted the outlet to a factual error, which CNA corrected with an editorial note, without any POFMA direction being issued by Minister for National Development Desmond Lee, who had previously issued four sets of correction directions to individuals and The Online Citizen without any prior alerts.

In the case of The Straits Times’ erroneous report, it is worth noting that a POFMA direction would have been issued to alternative media or individuals making such claims—rather than the People’s Association (PA) issuing a clarification—if it involved a misrepresentation suggesting the suspect was affiliated with grassroots organisations.

The swift action taken against these smaller, alternative media platforms and individuals contrasts with the lack of any POFMA direction against The Straits Times and CNA in similar situations. This raises the question of whether POFMA is being applied exclusively to alternative media, while mainstream outlets receive different treatment.

If the law is to effectively counter misinformation, it must be applied consistently across all media outlets, whether mainstream or alternative, to ensure fairness and maintain public trust.

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Opinion

Has NHB CEO Chang Hwee Nee recused herself from decisions on 38 Oxley Road’s future?

NHB has launched a new study to determine if 38 Oxley Road should be preserved, following Lee Hsien Yang’s application for demolition. This decision raises concerns, given the comprehensive 2018 report, and questions about CEO Chang Hwee Nee’s involvement due to potential conflicts of interest with her husband, Deputy PM Heng Swee Keat.

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DPM Heng Swee Keat and his wife, Chang Hwee Nee, CEO of National Heritage Board

The National Heritage Board (NHB) has announced that it will begin a new study to determine whether 38 Oxley Road, the home of Singapore’s founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, should be preserved as a national monument.

This comes in response to Lee Kuan Yew’s son, Lee Hsien Yang, applying to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on 21 October to demolish the property following the passing of his sister, Dr Lee Wei Ling, on 9 October 2024.

The NHB’s decision, however, raises questions about the necessity of a new study, especially since a thorough assessment was already carried out in 2018.

Additionally, it has led to queries about whether NHB’s CEO, Chang Hwee Nee, has recused herself from this process, given her connection to Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, her husband.

Chang, who has been CEO of NHB since 1 May 2017, leads the organisation during this critical period.

While there has been no formal statement about whether she is directly involved in decisions concerning 38 Oxley Road, her position naturally brings up questions about potential conflicts of interest.

Heng Swee Keat is a senior figure in the government and Chairman of the People’s Action Party (PAP).

It is publicly known that PAP cabinet members and senior leadership have expressed a desire to preserve Lee Kuan Yew’s house, despite his objection to its preservation.

Given the political sensitivity surrounding the house and how the PAP views 38 Oxley Road as a symbolic site linked to its esteemed late leader, Chang’s role has come under scrutiny.

The NHB has not clarified in its public statement whether Chang has recused herself from involvement in this study or the broader decision-making process.

Why a new study when a 2018 report already exists?

The announcement of a new study has raised eyebrows, particularly as a comprehensive report was produced by the ministerial committee in 2018.

This earlier report, which included an assessment by architects and surveyors Alfred William Lermit and Johannes Westerhout, reviewed the architectural, heritage, and historical significance of 38 Oxley Road.

The committee outlined multiple options, including full demolition, partial preservation (such as retaining the basement dining room), or demolishing the building but designating the site for alternative uses like a park or heritage centre.

The ministerial committee did not make a final recommendation in 2018, instead leaving the decision to future governments, with the understanding that any decision would need to balance public interest with the wishes of the Lee family.

The committee also noted that while Lee Kuan Yew’s preference was for the house to be demolished, he had been open to alternatives, provided the property remained in a habitable state and the family’s privacy was protected.

In light of the 2018 report, NHB’s decision to commission a new study has sparked scepticism.

The NHB press release on 24 October 2024 acknowledged the prior report’s conclusions but stated that the application for immediate demolition by Lee Hsien Yang would “rule out a proper and full consideration of the above options.”

This justification for the new study has led some to question why a fresh review of the house’s national historical, heritage, and architectural significance is needed, as many of the potential options and its significance were already identified in the earlier report.

Minister for Culture, Community and Youth Edwin Tong’s statement further reinforced the government’s cautious approach.

In a Facebook post on 24 October, Tong said that allowing Lee Hsien Yang to proceed with demolition would “rule out options which can be considered” and emphasised that “we do not think that any option should be precluded, or closed off, at this stage.”

However, this statement has raised concerns, as many of these options were explored in the 2018 report. The delay in decision-making and the commissioning of another study could be perceived as indecisiveness or an attempt to avoid confronting a controversial issue in the lead up to the upcoming General Election which must be held by November 2025.

The role of NHB’s CEO and potential conflicts of interest

Another significant question surrounding the process is whether NHB’s decision-making is being conducted independently, given the potential conflicts of interest associated with its leadership.

Chang Hwee Nee’s role as NHB CEO, combined with her marriage to Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, naturally raises concerns about impartiality, especially on an issue as politically sensitive as 38 Oxley Road.

Heng, a key member of the ruling PAP, was once in line to become Singapore’s Prime Minister, adding further complexity to the situation.

While NHB operates under the Ministry of Culture, Community and Youth, led by Edwin Tong, another senior member of the PAP, the board itself is responsible for commissioning and conducting heritage studies.

The board has not provided clarity on whether she has recused herself from involvement in matters related to the house. With no official statement confirming her recusal, public concerns about transparency and independence in the process remain unaddressed and continue to fester.

Lee Hsien Yang’s application for demolition aligns with Lee Kuan Yew’s final wishes, as set out in his will.

However, approval for such demolition must be granted by various regulatory bodies, including the URA and the Building and Construction Authority (BCA).

The application for demolition, aligned with Lee Kuan Yew’s final wishes, has been redirected to NHB due to the potential historical significance of 38 Oxley Road.

However, NHB’s decision to commission a new study raises questions, as the 2018 report had already explored many of the relevant options. If the previous report was insufficient, it leads to concerns about what NHB has been doing in the intervening six years.

This move risks being perceived as a reactive step, possibly aimed at delaying the demolition rather than making a timely decision based on available information.

Furthermore, the lack of clarity about CEO Chang Hwee Nee’s involvement, given her ties to Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, continues to fuel public concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

Without greater transparency and a clear explanation for the new study, NHB’s actions risk being seen as politically influenced, particularly as this issue grows in prominence in the lead-up to the 2025 General Election.

For many, the core question remains: is NHB genuinely reassessing the site’s heritage value, or merely postponing a difficult and politically charged decision?

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