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Growth at all costs: Who pays?

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By SGCharts.com (Image by Joshua Chiang)
A hard look at the numbers from the Department of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey (HES) 2012/13 shows the real winners and losers of the heady GDP growth of the past decade.
How Much Did You Spend Today?
Do you know that there are 4,648 households in Singapore that survive on less than $10 per person per day? Mind you, that budget includes not just food, but also items such as utilities, S&CC charges, transport, medical costs and school fees!
Table spending
In total, there are 36,023 households that earn less than $3,000 a month, and they survive on less than $25 per person per day. In comparison, the average full-day fees of government-subsidised childcare centres already exceed $30 per day. Out of the 237,959 households in the bottom 20% income group, 42.3% or 100,674 households have children living with them.
Uneven Playing Field
The richer you are, the more purchasing power you can lavish on your kids, but how much more? Now we have a clue. Let’s compare the average monthly expenditure of households with children versus those without.
Households with children, whose monthly income is $20,000 or more, spent 2.2 – 10.2 times that of households below the monthly income of $3,000.
In contrast, for households without children, those whose monthly income is $20,000 or more spent 3.1 – 6.6 times that of households below the monthly income of $3,000.
Of course, monthly household expenditure is a rough proxy for children-related expenses but a finer breakdown is not available.
table43
Source: HES Table 43
Savings Not Enough
About 1 in every 4 household below a monthly income of $3,000, spent more than they earned.
In this analysis, we shall assume that the bottom 20% income group has a monthly income of $3,000 or less. That’s because:
There are 237,959 households in the bottom 20% income group (HES Table 2).
There are 244,485 households below a monthly income of $3,000 (HES Table 1).
Therefore, the number of households below a monthly income of $3,000, is comparable to the bottom 20% income group. The difference is just 0.5% of the total number of households, or 6,526.
The following table shows the number of households and the proportion of those that overspent in each monthly income group:
Table spending proportion
Out of the 244,485 households that earn $2,999 or less, 15,704 stay in private property (HES Table 8). In a highly conservative estimate, let’s assume that all of the households who stay in private property overspends. If this group is omitted, 24% of households with a monthly income below $3,000, spent more than they earned. A more realistic estimate could go up to 31%.
The Household Expenditure Survey (HES) also carried a similar observation: “The monthly household expenditure of $2,230 for the lowest 20% income group exceeded their income of $2,020 by $210 on average in 2012/13.” (HES p.41). However, they offered a rather lazy explanation by saying that this was due to a higher proportion of retiree households among the bottom 20% income group.
However, the same report showed that the majority, 75.5% of of the bottom 20% income group, are non-retiree households (HES Chart 2.5). This means that there are 179,659 non-retiree households in the bottom 20% income group, who are struggling to make ends meet despite having at least one working person.
This is nothing new; in fact, a study in 2013 by the National University of Singapore’s Social Work Department also found that households in the bottom 20% income group are at higher risk of overspending.
CPF Not Enough
Table 50 of the HES shows the sources of income for retiree households by the type of housing they stay.
table50
Source: HES Table 50
For their monthly income, retiree households receive, on average, $208 in annuities and monthly payouts from the CPF Minimum Sum Scheme and CPF Life.
For those staying in 1 and 2-room flats, their monthly CPF payout is the lowest at $93 (about $3 per day).
Retirees staying in condominiums and other private apartments receive the highest monthly CPF payout of $513 (about $17 per day).
With the exception of those staying in landed properties, CPF payouts form 12% – 14% of the monthly income of retiree households.
CPF Life is mandatory for Singaporeans turning 55 after 2012. CPF Life is an annuity scheme that allows members to receive a monthly income for life. However, this also means that CPF Life offers a lower monthly payout than the Minimum Sum Scheme, where the payouts last about 20 years. Is CPF Life truly adequate for our retirement? Well, unless you are in your late fifties or older, dear reader, you have no choice in the matter.
The Super Rich
Singapore is becoming a playground for the super rich. Want to know how rich they are getting? Just follow the money trail. The sale of luxury cars is booming. The number of Maseratis on Singapore roads leapt by a whopping 19x from 30 (2002) to 584 (2013). Lamborghinis? They are selling like (million-dollar) hotcakes. The Lamborghini population shot through the roof at an astounding 22x from 15 (2002) to 334 (2013).
Our politicians are not clueless either; they are riding on the coattails of the ultra rich by pegging their pay to the top 0.05%** citizen earners, and then taking an arbitrary 40% discount to “signify the sacrifice that comes with the ethos of political service”. Even after the 40% discount, the annual salary of the MR4 entry grade for Ministers is $1,100,000. As the paper estimates the annual salary package to be 20 months, the monthly pay of a MR4 Minister is $55,000 ($1,100,000 / 20 months). This places the MR4 salary grade at twice the average monthly household income of the top 10% income group, which earned $26,622 in 2011.
(**Ministerial pay is pegged to the top 1,000 citizen earners with a 40% discount. According to MOM’s 2011 Occasional Paper on Singaporeans in the Workforce, there were 1,712,600 Singapore citizens in the labour force in June 2010. Hence, the top 1,000 earners out of 1,712,600 is about 0.05%.)
The Real Deal
But the rich are not the problem. The widening income gap is. The following table shows the dollar change in monthly household income from work (excluding employer CPF) from 2000 – 2012:
income_table
Adapted from source: Department of Statistics (DOS) report on Key Household Income Trends 2012. DOS no longer publishes monthly household income excluding employer CPF in the latest report, hence 2013 data is not available. (View full-size in Google Spreadsheet.)
The last column in the table (cells highlighted in yellow) refers to Net Change, which is the sum of all the increases and decreases in monthly household income from 2000 – 2012. The top 10% income group (91st – 100th percentile) almost doubled the income level they received in 2000. Contrast this with the bottom 10% income group, which received only a net increase of $233 after 12 years!
The Net Change column also shows who took second helpings to the growth pie, and then some. Expectedly, those at the bottom of the food chain got the crumbs. The top 10% income group’s slice of the growth pie ($14,150) is 61 times bigger than the last slice that got handed down to the bottom 10% income group ($233). The fallacy of trickle-down economics is self-evident. Singapore has been courting ultra rich foreigners for the past decade, did that help the bottom 10%? Even if Singapore brings in another 10 billionaires, will the jobs and opportunities benefit the bankers or the poor? History has already shown us the results.
Furthermore, differences in income levels are widening between all income groups. For example, the difference in monthly household income between the 81st – 90th percentile and the 91st – 100th percentile was about $6,000 in 2000. This income gap has actually widened to $14,000 in 2012. This means that, even among the top 20% income groups, there exists an income gap and this gap has actually more than doubled in 12 years!
In August, the government celebrated falling income inequality as a key achievement in the Singapore Public Sector Outcomes Review (SPOR) 2014. This report was released just in time for National Day weekend, so that the press could get the rosy story out on everyone’s breakfast table. But just a month later, the data released by the Department of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey seems to paint a different picture altogether. The bottom 20% are not saving enough, an uneven playing field between rich kids and poor kids, monopolisation of the growth pie…
All these factors underpin a pivotal moment in our society. Only time can tell who is right.

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Lim Tean criticizes Govt’s rejection of basic income report, urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Lim Tean, leader of Peoples Voice (PV), criticizes the government’s defensive response to the basic living income report, accusing it of avoiding reality.

He calls on citizens to assess affordability and choose MPs who can truly enhance their lives in the upcoming election.

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SINGAPORE: A recently published report, “Minimum Income Standard 2023: Household Budgets in a Time of Rising Costs,” unveils figures detailing the necessary income households require to maintain a basic standard of living, using the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) method.

The newly released study, spearheaded by Dr Ng Kok Hoe of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) specifically focuses on working-age households in 2021 and presents the latest MIS budgets, adjusted for inflation from 2020 to 2022.

The report detailed that:

  • The “reasonable starting point” for a living wage in Singapore was S$2,906 a month.
  • A single parent with a child aged two to six required S$3,218 per month.
  • Partnered parents with two children, one aged between seven and 12 and the other between 13 and 18, required S$6,426 a month.
  • A single elderly individual required S$1,421 a month.
  • Budgets for both single and partnered parent households averaged around S$1,600 per member. Given recent price inflation, these figures have risen by up to 5% in the current report.

Singapore Govt challenges MIS 2023 report’s representation of basic needs

Regrettably, on Thursday (14 Sept), the Finance Ministry (MOF), Manpower Ministry (MOM), and Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF) jointly issued a statement dismissing the idea suggested by the report, claiming that minimum household income requirements amid inflation “might not accurately reflect basic needs”.

Instead, they claimed that findings should be seen as “what individuals would like to have.”, and further defended their stances for the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) and other measures to uplift lower-wage workers.

The government argued that “a universal wage floor is not necessarily the best way” to ensure decent wages for lower-wage workers.

The government’s statement also questions the methodology of the Minimum Income Standards (MIS) report, highlighting limitations such as its reliance on respondent profiles and group dynamics.

“The MIS approach used is highly dependent on respondent profiles and on group dynamics. As the focus groups included higher-income participants, the conclusions may not be an accurate reflection of basic needs.”

The joint statement claimed that the MIS approach included discretionary expenditure items such as jewellery, perfumes, and overseas holidays.

Lim Tean slams Government’s response to basic living income report

In response to the government’s defensive reaction to the recent basic living income report, Lim Tean, leader of the alternative party Peoples Voice (PV), strongly criticizes the government’s apparent reluctance to confront reality, stating, “It has its head buried in the sand”.

He strongly questioned the government’s endorsement of the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) as a means to uplift the living standards of the less fortunate in Singapore, describing it as a misguided approach.

In a Facebook video on Friday (15 Sept), Lim Tean highlighted that it has become a global norm, especially in advanced and first-world countries, to establish a minimum wage, commonly referred to as a living wage.

“Everyone is entitled to a living wage, to have a decent life, It is no use boasting that you are one of the richest countries in the world that you have massive reserves, if your citizens cannot have a decent life with a decent living wage.”

Lim Tean cited his colleague, Leong Sze Hian’s calculations, which revealed a staggering 765,800 individuals in Singapore, including Permanent Residents and citizens, may not earn the recommended living wage of $2,906, as advised by the MIS report.

“If you take away the migrant workers or the foreign workers, and take away those who do not work, underage, are children you know are unemployed, and the figure is staggering, isn’t it?”

“You know you are looking at a very substantial percentage of the workforce that do not have sufficient income to meet basic needs, according to this report.”

He reiterated that the opposition parties, including the People’s Voice and the People’s Alliance, have always called for a minimum wage, a living wage which the government refuses to countenance.

Scepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs

In a time of persistently high inflation, Lim Tean expressed skepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs.

He cautioned against believing in predictions of imminent inflation reduction and lower interest rates below 2%, labeling them as unrealistic.

Lim Tean urged Singaporeans to assess their own affordability in these challenging times, especially with the impending GST increase.

He warned that a 1% rise in GST could lead to substantial hikes in everyday expenses, particularly food prices.

Lim Tean expressed concern that the PAP had become detached from the financial struggles of everyday Singaporeans, citing their high salaries and perceived insensitivity to the common citizen’s plight.

Lim Tean urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Highlighting the importance of the upcoming election, Lim Tean recommended that citizens seriously evaluate the affordability of their lives.

“If you ask yourself about affordability, you will realise that you have no choice, In the coming election, but to vote in a massive number of opposition Members of Parliament, So that they can make a difference.”

Lim Tean emphasized the need to move beyond the traditional notion of providing checks and balances and encouraged voters to consider who could genuinely improve their lives.

“To me, the choice is very simple. It is whether you decide to continue with a life, that is going to become more and more expensive: More expensive housing, higher cost of living, jobs not secure because of the massive influx of foreign workers,” he declared.

“Or you choose members of Parliament who have your interests at heart and who want to make your lives better.”

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Political observers call for review of Singapore’s criteria of Presidential candidates and propose 5 year waiting period for political leaders

Singaporean political observers express concern over the significantly higher eligibility criteria for private-sector presidential candidates compared to public-sector candidates, calling for adjustments.

Some also suggest a five year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before allowed to partake in the presidential election.

Notably, The Workers’ Party has earlier reiterated its position that the current qualification criteria favor PAP candidates and has called for a return to a ceremonial presidency instead of an elected one.

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While the 2023 Presidential Election in Singapore concluded on Friday (1 September), discussions concerning the fairness and equity of the electoral system persist.

Several political observers contend that the eligibility criteria for private-sector individuals running for president are disproportionately high compared to those from the public sector, and they propose that adjustments be made.

They also recommend a five-year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before being allowed to participate in the presidential election.

Aspiring entrepreneur George Goh Ching Wah, announced his intention to in PE 2023 in June. However, His application as a candidate was unsuccessful, he failed to receive the Certificate of Eligibility (COE) on 18 August.

Mr Goh had expressed his disappointment in a statement after the ELD’s announcement, he said, the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) took a very narrow interpretation of the requirements without explaining the rationale behind its decision.

As per Singapore’s Constitution, individuals running for the presidency from the private sector must have a minimum of three years’ experience as a CEO in a company.

This company should have consistently maintained an average shareholders’ equity of at least S$500 million and sustained profitability.

Mr Goh had pursued eligibility through the private sector’s “deliberative track,” specifically referring to section 19(4)(b)(2) of the Singapore Constitution.

He pointed out five companies he had led for over three years, collectively claiming a shareholders’ equity of S$1.521 billion.

Notably, prior to the 2016 revisions, the PEC might have had the authority to assess Mr Goh’s application similarly to how it did for Mr Tan Jee Say in the 2011 Presidential Election.

Yet, in its current formulation, the PEC is bound by the definitions laid out in the constitution.

Calls for equitable standards across public and private sectors

According to Singapore’s Chinese media outlet, Shin Min Daily News, Dr Felix Tan Thiam Kim, a political analyst at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore, noted that in 2016, the eligibility criteria for private sector candidates were raised from requiring them to be executives of companies with a minimum capital of S$100 million to CEOs of companies with at least S$500 million in shareholder equity.

However, the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates remained unchanged. He suggests that there is room for adjusting the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates.

Associate Professor Bilver Singh, Deputy Head of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, believes that the constitutional requirements for private-sector individuals interested in running are excessively stringent.

He remarked, “I believe it is necessary to reassess the relevant regulations.”

He points out that the current regulations are more favourable for former public officials seeking office and that the private sector faces notably greater challenges.

“While it may be legally sound, it may not necessarily be equitable,” he added.

Proposed five-year waiting period for political leaders eyeing presidential race

Moreover, despite candidates severing ties with their political parties in pursuit of office, shedding their political affiliations within a short timeframe remains a challenging endeavour.

A notable instance is Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who resigned from the People’s Action Party (PAP) just slightly over a month before announcing his presidential candidacy, sparking considerable debate.

During a live broadcast, his fellow contender, Ng Kok Song, who formerly served as the Chief Investment Officer of GIC, openly questioned Mr Tharman’s rapid transition to a presidential bid shortly after leaving his party and government.

Dr Felix Tan suggests that in the future, political leaders aspiring to run for the presidency should not only resign from their parties but also adhere to a mandatory waiting period of at least five years before entering the race.

Cherian George and Kevin Y.L. Tan: “illogical ” to raise the corporate threshold in 2016

Indeed, the apprehension regarding the stringent eligibility criteria and concerns about fairness in presidential candidacy requirements are not limited to political analysts interviewed by Singapore’s mainstream media.

Prior to PE2023, CCherian George, a Professor of media studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, and Kevin Y.L. Tan, an Adjunct Professor at both the Faculty of Law of the National University of Singapore and the NTU’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), brought attention to the challenges posed by the qualification criteria for candidates vying for the Singaporean Presidency.

In their article titled “Why Singapore’s Next Elected President Should be One of its Last,” the scholars discussed the relevance of the current presidential election system in Singapore and floated the idea of returning to an appointed President, emphasizing the symbolic and unifying role of the office.

They highlighted that businessman George Goh appeared to be pursuing the “deliberative track” for qualification, which requires candidates to satisfy the PEC that their experience and abilities are comparable to those of a typical company’s chief executive with shareholder equity of at least S$500 million.

Mr Goh cobbles together a suite of companies under his management to meet the S$500m threshold.

The article also underscored the disparities between the eligibility criteria for candidates from the public and private sectors, serving as proxies for evaluating a candidate’s experience in handling complex financial matters.

“It is hard to see what financial experience the Chairman of the Public Service Commission or for that matter, the Chief Justice has, when compared to a Minister or a corporate chief.”

“The raising of the corporate threshold in 2016 is thus illogical and serves little purpose other than to simply reduce the number of potentially eligible candidates.”

The article also touches upon the issue of candidates’ independence from political parties, particularly the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

It mentions that candidates are expected to be non-partisan and independent, and it questions how government-backed candidates can demonstrate their independence given their previous affiliations.

The Workers’ Party advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency

It comes as no surprise that Singapore’s alternative party, the Workers’ Party, reaffirmed its stance on 30 August, asserting that they believe the existing qualifying criteria for presidential candidates are skewed in favour of those approved by the People’s Action Party (PAP).

They argue that the current format of the elected presidency (EP) undermines the principles of parliamentary democracy.

“It also serves as an unnecessary source of gridlock – one that could potentially cripple a non-PAP government within its first term – and is an alternative power centre that could lead to political impasses.”

Consistently, the Workers’ Party has been vocal about its objection to the elected presidency and has consistently called for its abolition.

Instead, they advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency, a position they have maintained for over three decades.

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