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90% vaccination rate could bring down the number of cases “quite significantly”: Prof Tambyah on living with COVID-19

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Living with COVID-19 means accepting that it has become an endemic and that there is likely no way to eliminate the virus using current strategies without paying a tremendous price, said infectious diseases specialist and chairman of Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) Professor Paul Tambyah.

In an hour-long Facebook Live discussion, titled “Ask Paul Anything”, on Tuesday evening (17 Aug), Prof Tambyah spoke about living with COVID-19 as an endemic and addressed various concerns about the vaccines and vaccination programme in Singapore.

During the discussion, he said that he doesn’t think there is a chance of Singapore heading back to square one in terms of circuit breaker if the nation lives with COVID-19 in an endemic stage.

Prof Tambyah attributes this to vaccinations.

“So because of vaccination, it’s very hard to lock down an entire country if nobody is in [intensive care units],” he said.

“So once we reach a very high level of vaccination and the disease is mainly mild, then you can’t justify shutting down businesses, closing schools, and things like that,” Prof Tambyah explained, adding that this is the situation in the United Kingdom right now.

On the topic of vaccinations and possibly making them mandatory, he noted that in Singapore, only the measles and diphtheria vaccines are mandatory. He also pointed out that the COVID-19 vaccines haven’t been made mandatory in any country so far as there isn’t enough longitudinal data about them.

This is important because if the Government mandates that everyone has to be vaccinated, they would not only have to provide the vaccines, but they would also be on the hook financially if anything goes wrong, Prof Tambyah asserted.

Nonetheless, he stressed that it is important for people to get vaccinated so that life can go on as the number of cases will go down significantly as more people are vaccinated.

However, Prof Tambyah advised caution for certain aspect of the vaccination. Referring to the recent concerns about the adverse effects of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine among the youth, he said that more studies need to be done.

“While we shouldn’t stop vaccination of young people, we should do studies on whether we could reduce the dose or whether we could, you know, have some kind of other regimes for these young people,” he said, adding that the risks and benefits should be weighed.

Is it true that vaccines do not make people less infectious?

When asked this question, Prof Tambyah said that it is true that the COVID-19 vaccine does not necessarily make people less infectious.

One possible explanation for this, he said, is that some people just don’t take the vaccine well and are unable to mount a response against the virus even after being vaccinated.

Another possibility is that the mRNA vaccines, which are widely used in Singapore, could be good as a whole in protecting from severe disease but does not prevent transmission.

“The current regimes for Pfizer, they have been a little bit disappointing in terms of preventing infection as a whole, but at the same time, in terms of preventing serious illness, they still are pretty good.

“The effectiveness that we’ve seen, not just in the US but also in Singapore and even in Israel, the vast majority of the cases have been mild and asymptomatic,” he explained.

Prof Tambyah also noted that asymptomatic carriers of the virus are less infectious than those who are symptomatic.

Subsequently, he suggested that the Government could offer different types of vaccines instead of just the mRNA ones.

On the topic of effectiveness, Prof Tambyah said that new data suggests that a third jab might be necessary for those who have been vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine.

He noted that in the UK where the first and second dose of Pfizer jabs were stretched out beyond the recommended time, the number of cases appears not to have gone up. As such, he thinks it might be necessary for those who followed the recommended spacing to get a third dose.

Should not aim for 100% vaccination rate?

When asked if Singapore should not aim for a 100 per cent vaccination rate, Prof Tambyah responded: “Yeah, and frankly I think it’s how you get there.”

“Scotland has got a 100% vaccination rate for the very elderly, and I don’t know how they’ve done it but I think it’s got to do with the fact that the primary healthcare system in Scotland is very strong,” he elaborated.

Prof Tambyah then opined that even 90 per cent vaccination rate could bring down the number of cases “quite significantly”.

“This is living with the virus,” he said, adding that Singapore cannot afford to shut down over a single case as New Zealand did recently.

Drawing a comparison to influenza, Prof Tambyah cited a Ministry of Health (MOH) study from 15 years ago which estimated that between 500 to 600 people a year die of influenza in Singapore. Most of them are elderly people with underlying heart and lung disease.

“We need to move to a state where we live with the virus, we concentrate on protecting the vulnerable, making sure the health care systems are intact and we get on with life,” he said.

Long-term effects of the vaccine are still a “big mystery”

During the discussion, Prof Tambyah also touched on the concerns people have about the long-term effects of the COVID-19 vaccines.

Describing it as a “big mystery” still, he noted that many studies are already looking into it. He added that there have been nothing in the medical literature so far to suggest that there are long-term adverse side effects from being vaccinated, which is a “cause for optimism”.

Prof Tambyah went on to say that this is something the Government will have to “mitigate”.

Using the dengue vaccine as an example, he recalled how the Singapore government was cautious about it when it was first licensed. When cases of antibody dependent enhancement surfaced, Singapore was mostly spared.

“The ‘kiasu’ nature of our regulatory authorities may protect us,” Prof Tambyah said in jest.

Antibody dependent enhancement occurs when a pre-existing antibody present in the body – such as from vaccination or a primary infection – causes a more severe infection when a person is infected with a different strain later on.

Watch the full discussion here:

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Chee Soon Juan questions Shanmugam’s $88 million property sale amid silence from Mainstream Media

Dr Chee Soon Juan of the SDP raised concerns about the S$88 million sale of Mr K Shanmugam’s Good Class Bungalow at Astrid Hill, questioning transparency and the lack of mainstream media coverage. He called for clarity on the buyer, valuation, and potential conflicts of interest.

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On Sunday (22 Sep), Dr Chee Soon Juan, Secretary General of the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), issued a public statement on Facebook, expressing concerns regarding the sale of Minister for Home Affairs and Law, Mr K Shanmugam’s Good Class Bungalow (GCB) at Astrid Hill.

Dr Chee questioned the transparency of the S$88 million transaction and the absence of mainstream media coverage despite widespread discussion online.

According to multiple reports cited by Dr Chee, Mr Shanmugam’s property was transferred in August 2023 to UBS Trustees (Singapore) Pte Ltd, which holds the property in trust under the Jasmine Villa Settlement.

Dr Chee’s statement focused on two primary concerns: the lack of response from Mr Shanmugam regarding the transaction and the silence of major media outlets, including Singapore Press Holdings and Mediacorp.

He argued that, given the ongoing public discourse and the relevance of property prices in Singapore, the sale of a high-value asset by a public official warranted further scrutiny.

In his Facebook post, Dr Chee posed several questions directed at Mr Shanmugam and the government:

  1. Who purchased the property, and is the buyer a Singaporean citizen?
  2. Who owns Jasmine Villa Settlement?
  3. Were former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and current Prime Minister Lawrence Wong informed of the transaction, and what were their responses?
  4. How was it ensured that the funds were not linked to money laundering?
  5. How was the property’s valuation determined, and by whom?

The Astrid Hill property, originally purchased by Mr Shanmugam in 2003 for S$7.95 million, saw a significant increase in value, aligning with the high-end status of District 10, where it is located. The 3,170.7 square-meter property was sold for S$88 million in August 2023.

Dr Chee highlighted that, despite Mr Shanmugam’s detailed responses regarding the Ridout Road property, no such transparency had been offered in relation to the Astrid Hill sale.

He argued that the lack of mainstream media coverage was particularly concerning, as public interest in the sale is high. Dr Chee emphasized that property prices and housing affordability are critical issues in Singapore, and transparency from public officials is essential to maintain trust.

Dr Chee emphasized that the Ministerial Code of Conduct unambiguously states: “A Minister must scrupulously avoid any actual or apparent conflict of interest between his office and his private financial interests.”

He concluded his statement by reiterating the need for Mr Shanmugam to address the questions raised, as the matter involves not only the Minister himself but also the integrity of the government and its responsibility to the public.

The supposed sale of Mr Shamugam’s Astrid Hill property took place just a month after Mr Shanmugam spoke in Parliament over his rental of a state-owned bungalow at Ridout Road via a ministerial statement addressing potential conflicts of interest.

At that time, Mr Shanmugam explained that his decision to sell his home was due to concerns about over-investment in a single asset, noting that his financial planning prompted him to sell the property and move into rental accommodation.

The Ridout Road saga last year centred on concerns about Mr Shanmugam’s rental of a sprawling black-and-white colonial bungalow, occupying a massive plot of land, managed by the Singapore Land Authority (SLA), which he oversees in his capacity as Minister for Law. Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, also rented a similarly expansive property nearby.

Mr Shanmugam is said to have recused himself from the decision-making process, and a subsequent investigation by the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) found no wrongdoing while Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean confirmed in Parliament that Mr Shanmugam had removed himself from any decisions involving the property.

As of now, Mr Shanmugam has not commented publicly on the sale of his Astrid Hill property.

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Redditors question support for PAP over perceived arrogance and authoritarian attitude

Despite Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s warning that slimmer electoral margins would limit the government’s political space “to do the right things”, many Redditors questioned their support for the ruling PAP, criticising its perceived arrogance. They argued that SM Lee’s remarks show the party has ‘lost its ways’ and acts as if it alone can determine what is right. Others noted that the PAP’s supermajority allows for the passage of unfavourable policies without adequate scrutiny.

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In a recent speech, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned that “if electoral margins get slimmer, the government will have less political space to do the right things.”

Mr Lee, who served as Prime Minister for 20 years, highlighted the risks associated with increasingly competitive politics.

“It will become harder to disregard short-term considerations in decision-making. The political dynamics will become very different,” he stated during his speech at the Annual Public Service Leadership Ceremony 2024 on 17 September.

“Singaporeans must understand the dangers this creates, and so must the public service,” SM Lee stressed.

SM Lee pointed out that Singapore faces formidable internal and external challenges in the years ahead, with rising expectations and demands from citizens.

As growth becomes harder to achieve and politics becomes more fiercely contested, he warned, “Things can go wrong for Singapore too.”

He urged vigilance in preparing for an uncertain future, noting, “As the world changes, and as the generations change, we must do our best to renew our system – to ensure that it continues to work well for us, even as things change.”

Critique of PAP’s Arrogance and Disconnect from Singaporeans

The People’s Action Party (PAP) experienced a notable decline in its vote share during the 2020 General Election, securing 61.24% of the votes and winning 83 out of 93 seats, a drop from 69.9% in 2015.

A significant loss was in Sengkang GRC, where the PAP team, led by former Minister Ng Chee Meng, was defeated by the Workers’ Party (WP).

In discussions on Reddit, some users questioned why they should support the ruling PAP, criticising the party’s perceived arrogance.

They pointed out that SM Lee’s recent remarks illustrate that the party has strayed from effectively serving Singaporeans and seems to believe it has the sole authority to decide what is right.

Others highlighted that the PAP’s super-majority in Parliament enables the passage of unfavourable policies without sufficient scrutiny.

One comment acknowledged that while many older Singaporeans remain loyal to the PAP due to its past achievements, younger generations feel the party has failed to deliver similar results.

There is significant frustration that essentials like housing and the cost of living have become less affordable compared to previous generations.

The comment emphasised the importance of the 2011 election results, which they believe compelled the PAP to reassess its policies, especially concerning foreign labor and job security.

He suggested that to retain voter support, the PAP must continue to ensure a good material standard of living.

“Then, I ask you, vote PAP for what? They deserve to lose a supermajority. Or else why would they continue to deliver the same promises they delivered to our parents? What else would get a bunch of clueless bureaucrats to recognise their problems?”

Emphasising Government Accountability to the Public

Another Redditor argued that it is the government’s responsibility to be accountable to the people.

He further challenged SM Lee’s assertion about having less political space to do the right things, questioning his authority to define what is “right” for Singapore.

The comment criticised initiatives like the Founder’s Memorial and the NS Square, suggesting they may serve to boost the egos of a few rather than benefit the broader population. The Redditor also questioned the justification for GST hikes amid rising living costs.

“Policies should always be enacted to the benefit of the people, and it should always be the people who decide what is the best course of action for our country. No one should decide that other than us.”

The comment called for an end to narratives that present the PAP as the only party capable of rescuing Singapore from crises, stating that the country has moved past the existential challenges of its founding era and that innovative ideas can come from beyond a single political party.

Another comment echoed this sentiment, noting that by stating this, SM Lee seemingly expects Singaporeans to accept the PAP’s assumption that they—and by extension, the government and public service—will generally do the “right things.”

“What is conveniently overlooked is that the point of having elections is to have us examine for ourselves if we accept that very premise, and vote accordingly.”

A comment further argued that simply losing a supermajority does not equate to a lack of political space for the government to make the right decisions.

The Redditor express frustration with SM Lee’s rhetoric, suggesting that he is manipulating public perception to justify arbitrary changes to the constitution.

Concerns Over PAP’s Supermajority in Parliament

Another comment pointed out that the PAP’s supermajority in Parliament enables the passage of questionable and controversial policies, bypassing robust debate and discussion.

The comment highlighted the contentious constitutional amendments made in late 2016, which reserved the elected presidency for candidates from a specific racial group if no president from that group had served in the previous five terms.

A comment highlighted the contrast: in the past, the PAP enjoyed a wide electoral margin because citizens believed they governed effectively. Now, the PAP claims that without a substantial electoral margin, they cannot govern well.

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