Latest data shows COVID-19 cases in New Zealand could have been higher if no lockdown was imposed
According to a new modelling released on Thursday (9 April), it was revealed that New Zealand’s early move to impose a lockdown might have saved the country from seeing a spike in COVID-19 cases. On Thursday afternoon, the Government recorded only 29 new cases of the deadly coronavirus, but this figure could have been several hundreds now if no lockdown was implemented. The other scenario could have seen about 200 new cases reported on Thursday, and probably 350 daily cases recorded around this time next week. This prediction is based on the modelling by researchers at Te Pūnaha Matatini, New Zealand’s Centre of Research Excellence in Complex Systems and Data Analytics. It also forecasted that the number of cases would continue to float under 50 for the remainder of April. “We think the lockdown has had a significant effect, which means that our worst-case scenarios are no longer relevant, as long as we continue to be able to contain the virus,” said the centre’s director Professor Shaun Hendy. He added, “Ultimately we have to follow the case numbers and these will always lag behind the time when the infections take place. But in our graph you can see that if we hadn’t gone into lockdown, then new case numbers would have been steadily rising since the end of March.” “The fact that the actual case numbers have not risen shows that lockdown is having an effect. Next week we should have a good sense of how much of an effect and what this means for our lockdown.” On 26 February, New Zealand confirmed its first case of the novel coronavirus, and it closed its borders on 19 March. Following that, the country imposed a complete lockdown on 26 March where 5 million of its population are not allowed to leave their homes, unless they want to get essential supplies or take short, local walks. Additionally, all schools and non-essential services have also been asked to shut its doors. The country also declared a state of emergency and is at Level 4, which is the highest level, on the COVID-19 alert system. As of Thursday, New Zealand has recorded 1,239 positive cases of COVID-19, with 317 recoveries. In response to this situation, the country’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, “What New Zealanders have done over the last two weeks is huge.” “In the face of the greatest threat to human health we have seen in over a century, Kiwis have quietly and collectively implemented a nationwide wall of defence. We are on track to meet their most optimistic scenario. We are turning a corner. But to succeed, we need it to keep working,” she added. She also referred to an earlier modelling which showed that New Zealand was initially on a similar route as Italy and Spain, and that the 205 cases recorded on 25 March could have increased to over 10,000 by now. Mr Hendy explained that New Zealand’s decision to go into a lockdown before the cases rose high gave the country a chance that other countries no longer have. “We may be able to eliminate the disease here before a vaccine comes along, which remains to be seen in Europe or the US, and even Australia," he said. He added, "What we can see is that lockdown measures similar to those we have used here have been successful in places like Norway, while countries that have had weaker policies, like Sweden for instance, have not fared as well. That should give us confidence that our approach has been the right one." Although the lockdown seems to be working in New Zealand’s favour, but Mr Hendy warned that the country should still be careful of a possible “bounce-back” in cases, since very few people have any immunity to the virus. "The disease could be reintroduced from overseas or it may flare up again in parts of the country," he said. He continued, "If we lift the lockdown too early or slow down on our contact tracing and testing then this is a very real risk. This is even true in countries that have had the worst outbreaks. Everyone is going to have to be wary for some time."
