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IMF:预测我国今年经济增长放缓至2巴仙

by Yee Loon
16/07/2019
in 新闻, 时事, 财经
Reading Time: 1 min read
0

(图源:新加坡)

国际货币基金组织(IMF)称,因全球贸易紧张局势影响外部需求,将2019年新加坡经济增速预测,放缓至两巴仙。

IMF预测我国增长动力将转向内需,而随着数码化和新行业相关计划的推动,预计投资也将增加。在服务业和其他贸易相关领域推动下,我国经济增长在“中期”应会稳定在2.5巴仙左右。

而在今年五月份,IMF预测我国2019年GDP增长为2.3巴仙。2018年增速为3.2巴仙。

IMF指我国经济活动在去年放缓在2017年国内需求激增之后,2018年的增长率逐渐减少至3.1巴仙。虽然消费保持弹性,但投资急剧下降,增长的主要推动力转向外部需求。

由于制造业减速,2019年第一季度增长进一步放缓至1.2巴仙。尽管如此,2018年劳动力市场状况持续改善:失业率下降,就业人数增加,实际工资增长。而去年的通膨压力仍温和,金管局核心通胀率放缓至1.6巴仙,放映了电价和全球油价下跌。

至于2019年第一季的经常账户盈余虽有所下降,但在GDP的占比仍较大。

不过IMF仍赞扬我国宏观经济表现亮眼,在过去20年人均GDP增长一倍;自全球金融危机以来收入不平等有所下降,也赞扬新加坡当局合理的宏观经济管理和稳健政策框架。

IMF也赞许新加坡在房地产市场采取宏观审慎和其他措施,并建议消除附加买方印花税和居住区别差异,然后在系统性风险小时候,才逐步取消措施。

IMF认为,如果经济下滑风险成为现实,财政政策硬成为第一道防线,建议优先支持银行的外汇流动性。

贸工部预估数据:次季经济增长仅0.1巴仙

而在上周五,新加坡贸工部公布预估数据,新加坡经济在第二季度(2Q19)表现不如预期,增长仅0.1巴仙,比上季度的1.1巴仙更低。十年来最低的季度增长,2009年第二季时经济萎缩1.2巴仙。

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