Singapore's economy grew 4.4% in 2024, exceeding forecasts: MTI

Singapore’s economy expanded by 4.4% in 2024, exceeding earlier estimates and outperforming forecasts, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced in updated data released on 14 February.

The figure was an upward revision from the 4% growth estimated in January and significantly above the initial forecast of around 3.5%.

The revised fourth-quarter growth was 5%, an increase from the earlier estimate of 4.3%. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy expanded by 0.5%, a slowdown from the 3% growth in the third quarter.

"Taking into account the performance of the economy in the fourth quarter, GDP growth came in at 4.4% for 2024 as a whole, faster than the 1.8% expansion in 2023," MTI stated in its press release.

The growth was mainly driven by the wholesale trade, finance and insurance, and manufacturing sectors.

In particular, the electronics cluster within the manufacturing sector and the machinery, equipment, and supplies segment of wholesale trade saw robust expansion, supported by an upturn in the global electronics cycle.

The finance and insurance sector also recorded strong growth, attributed to increased trading activity as market sentiment improved. Net fees and commissions among banks and fund managers experienced significant gains, according to MTI.

However, not all sectors performed well. The retail trade and food and beverage services sectors contracted as Singaporeans redirected their spending towards overseas travel.

Outlook for 2025

MTI maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2025 at between 1% and 3%.

Dr Beh Swan Gin, permanent secretary at MTI, stated that the slower growth expected in Singapore should not significantly impact wages and employment.

"We will monitor these closely, but so far ... the vacancy rates, the unemployment levels, retrenchment levels, have all been very stable, so we don't see any cause for concern at this point," he told reporters.

Singapore’s external demand outlook for 2025 remains largely unchanged. The country's key trading partners are expected to experience slower GDP growth compared to 2024.

In the United States, economic growth is projected to moderate as private consumption slows due to easing labour market conditions.

MTI noted uncertainty surrounding the US economy, with its trajectory depending on the policies of the new administration.

On 13 February, US President Donald Trump announced plans for "reciprocal tariffs" that could impact both allies and competitors.

In the Eurozone, GDP growth is expected to improve, supported by stronger consumption and a gradual recovery in investments as monetary policy becomes more accommodative.

Meanwhile, China’s economic growth is projected to slow, driven by weaker merchandise exports due to tariff hikes and constrained investment growth caused by industrial overcapacity.

Southeast Asian economies are expected to maintain steady growth, bolstered by improving domestic demand and a sustained recovery in tourism, MTI added.

Non-oil domestic exports

Enterprise Singapore, in a separate report released on 14 February, stated that Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew by 0.2% in 2024, reversing the sharp 13.1% decline recorded in 2023.

The turnaround was driven by an 8.2% increase in electronic product shipments, following a steep 19.7% contraction in 2023. In contrast, non-electronic NODX declined by 1.9%, though this was an improvement from the 11.1% decrease seen the previous year.

For the fourth quarter of 2024, NODX rose by 2.4% year-on-year, following a stronger 9% expansion in the third quarter.