LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM — Reuters reported on Thursday (29 Dec 2022) that around 9,000 people in China are probably dying each day from COVID-19.
The estimate came from UK-based health data firm Airfinity. This figure was nearly doubled from its estimate a week ago.
COVID infections started to sweep across China in November, picking up pace this month after Beijing dismantled its zero-COVID policies including regular PCR testing on its population and publication of data on asymptomatic cases.
Cumulative deaths in China since 1 December likely reached 100,000 with infections totalling 18.6 million, Airfinity said in a statement.
It says it uses modelling based on data from Chinese provinces before the recent changes to reporting cases were implemented.
Airfinity expects China’s COVID infections to reach their first peak on 13 January with 3.7 million cases a day.
In its projection, Airfinity estimated that China’s COVID deaths will hit 25,000 a day near the end of January, with cumulative deaths reaching 584,000 since December.
By the end of April, Airfinity predicted that COVID deaths in China will hit 1.7 million, more than the 1.1 million in the US.
In contrast, the Chinese authorities have reported only 10 COVID deaths since 7 December. As of 28 December, the total number of COVID deaths stood at 5,246 since the start of the pandemic in 2020.
Several countries have made decisions to tighten border controls by requiring COVID-19 negative tests for all visitors from China.
Currently, countries including the United States, Japan, South Korea, Italy and India have announced that all travellers from China must provide a negative Covid-19 test to enter their countries.
Taiwanese authorities are also requiring travellers from China to take a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test upon arrival in Taiwan, starting on 1 January.
Health experts warned that surging COVID-19 cases in China could create a “potential breeding ground” for new variants to emerge. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had said the organisation was “very concerned” about the evolving COVID-19 situation in China, with “increasing reports of severe disease”.
Meanwhile, Singapore’s MOH said that the prevailing border measures and vaccination requirements for travellers and work pass holders arriving from China remain unchanged.
It added that it is closely monitoring the international COVID-19 situation, and will adjust its border health measures as appropriate should the need arise. The travellers just need to show proof of vaccination.
