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S’porean blogger rebuts Critical Spectator’s claim that S’pore reserves increased S$235 billion during the pandemic

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A Singaporean blogger, Pat Low, who runs the blog “Chempost: Going down the rabbit hole”, refuted the Critical Spectator’s (CS) claims that Singapore’s foreign reserves have increased by S$235 billion during the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that such claims were “hogwash”.

Pat Low described himself as a “Merdeka generation NSman” who only blogs “for the fun of it”.

Based on the About section of his blog, he had spent a major part of his career in the banking industry and eventually became a channel partner of an electricity retailer after retirement.

In a blog post on Saturday (17 July), Pat Low noted that a TikTok user has adapted CS’ article into a video and has made its rounds on social media with “false info”.

“The truth for the day is, Singapore didn’t grow richer by S$235b during the pandemic,” he wrote.

CS is a commentary blog which runs by a Polish national named Michael Petraeus. He gained national recognition sometime in late 2018 and 2019 due to his series of posts that were somewhat deemed as pro-government.

While his early posts discussed issues like Brexit, China’s work culture, and US politics, Mr Petraeus later on became critical of Malaysia’s former Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

His commentaries also painted Singapore in a positive manner, causing many to question his motivation.

“Outside of local issues, I actually find his articles quite interesting,” said Pat Low.

Mr Petraeus has recently written an article titled “Singapore is richer by over S$200b thanks to COVID-19, as Temasek announces record returns”, which was published by Vulcan Post on 14 July.

In his article, he claimed that Singapore’s reserves increased by S$235 billion, taking into account the increase of S$160 billion in the Official Foreign Reserves (OFR) of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) from 2019 to 2021, and the S$75 billion profits made by Temasek Holdings this year.

When Facebook user Chris Kuan rebutted his claims, Mr Petraeus responded with Ravi Menon’s 2019 speech that says “the actual definition of our reserves is certainly not the net asset position but the total OFR”.

But Pat Low noted that the Polish national “got it wrong again”.

“Singapore’s reserve is the aggregate of the net assets of all the ministries, statutory boards, and Fifth Schedule companies”

He started off by explaining that the national reserve is “far in excess” of the net assets under the management of MAS, Temasek, and estimated GIC numbers.

Pat Low illustrated a “quick book-keeping lesson” in the post, as he noted that the national wealth can be derived from the way a company’s net worth is appraised.

“In very basic terms, a balance sheet will look like this. The P&L a/c represents the net of all the Expenses and Revenue accounts.

“At the end of the year, assuming there is no distribution, the net profit is finalised and transferred to the General Reserve which will then be S$2,000. The net worth of the enterprise is the Total assets $5,000 – Liabilities $2,000 = Net asset S$3,000, which is = to Equity.

“The net asset, which is also Equity, is what an enterprise is worth. An increase in the net asset figure represents an increase in the value of the enterprise,” he explained.

Pat Low also pointed out that Mr Petraeus appears to have excluded GIC from his calculation of Singapore’s national reserves, as he only mentioned profits made by Temasek and MAS.

“By definition, our national reserve is the aggregate of the net assets of all the ministries, all statutory boards and Fifth Schedule companies,” said the blogger.

Fifth Schedule entities are CPF Board, MAS, HDB, GIC, and Temasek, as stated on the Ministry Of Finance’s (MOF) website. While the statutory board comprises 65 entities.

How do reserves get funnelled to MAS, Temasek, and GIC?

As we all know, Singapore’s national reserves are managed by MAS, GIC, and Temasek Holdings, which are given the mandate to invest some of the reserves to maximise the long-term value of the assets.

However, Pat Low highlighted that the national reserves are actually “more” than the portfolio numbers of these three entities.

He explained how the reserves get funnelled to the three fund managers. Firstly, the government surpluses will be transferred to the treasury, followed by the proceeds from the government land sales.

After that, the treasury will channel the government surpluses and the proceeds from the land sales to GIC.

Pat Low also noted that the government would occasionally transfer “some funds” to Temasek.

“Of the net profits of MAS, 17% are distributed to govt Consolidated Funds, balance 83% the MAS transfers to its General Reserve Fund which it manages.

“For GIC and Temasek, a special long term risk-factored formula is applied on the portfolio to arrive at what is known as the NIRC (net investment returns contribution). This portion of the net profits is distributed back to the government to help fund the budget. The balance of the profits is ploughed back as capital,” he added.

In terms of CPF, Pat Low noted that the government securitise the debt by issuance of Special Singapore Government Securities (SGSS), which guarantees a fixed return to CPF in a “risk-free security”.

He noted that proceeds from the SSGS will then be funnelled to the GIC to invest.

“Point to note, which are most often misunderstood by the majority. The government does not make use of our CPF money. It is invested by GIC. Of course, if GIC generates a better ROI than the interest on SSGS, the benefits do not trickle to CPF members,” said the blogger.

Here’s why the claims about Singapore’s reserves rose by S$235b is “hogwash”

Pat Low opined that it would be incorrect to assert that the national reserves have increased solely based on profits made by MAS and Temasek, given that there are other state entities for which the data is unknown.

He also included a photo of MAS’ balance sheet as of 31 March this year, which shows that MAS net asset has increased from S$39.599 billion in 2019 to S$47.523 billion in 2021.

“The balance sheet above shows from 2019 to 2021, MAS net asset increased S$47.523b – S$39.599b = S$7.93b. The contribution to increase in national reserves from MAS was a far far cry from S$160b claimed by CS,” he remarked.

Pat Low went on to say that Mr Petraeus “mistook” the foreign exchange reserves in MAS books as reserves, as these reserves are actually “very liquid foreign assets”.

“These are assets set aside for some purpose, that’s why they are commonly referred to as foreign exchange reserves. All central banks maintain such a reserve for the purpose of supporting at least 6 months of the country’s importation of goods.

“They are also required for the central banks to manage their currency floats, that is, to stabilise their currency exchange rate. MAS maintains a very high level of these assets. In fact our foreign exchange reserves is one of the highest in the world.

“The reason why MAS maintains such a high foreign exchange reserve recognises Singapore as an international financial centre which needs substantial foreign currency liquidity in the local market. A high reserve makes for a very strong S$,” he noted.

Moreover, the foreign reserve assets have actually increased by S$122.077 billion from 2019 to 2021 – S$529,128 in 2021 minus with S$407,051 in 2019 – which is contradicted with Mr Petraeus’ claims that the foreign reserve assets have increased by S$160 billion.

“An increase on the asset side is reflected in an increase in the liabilities side somewhere. That is, the foreign asset increase has to be funded from somewhere.

“This can be seen in increases in money printing (S$10b), increase in banks reserve deposits (S$12b) MAS securities issued (S$35.5b), other liabilities- repos (S$81b). This increase in foreign assets has nothing to do with our national reserves. Neither does it represent greater wealth for the country,” he added.

“Questions ought to be raised” with regards to Temasek’s performance in 2021

Mr Petraeus has mentioned in his article that of the S$235 billion increase in the national reserves, S$75 billion was from Temasek. But Pat Low rebutted his assertion.

“Instead of making the bold claim of huge profits, I think questions ought to be raised,” he said of Temasek’s financial performance this year.

He included a screenshot of Temasek Group’s balance sheet from 2012 to 2021, pointing out that the increase in Temasek net assets or equity between 2019 and 2021 is in fact S$64 billion – after having S$347.5 billion in 2021 minus with S$283.5 billion in 2019.

In terms of Temasek Group net profit from 2019 to 2021, the Group’s income statement indicated that the net profit has increased from S$11.8 billion in 2019 to S$56.5 billion this year.

“CS referred to a net profit of S$75b by Temasek in 2021. That is not correct. The net profit was only S$56.5b. Perhaps he rounded it up to S$57b and made a typo transpositional error to S$75b?” said Pat Low.

The blogger concurred that the S$56.5 billion in profit by Temasek this year was an impressive 24.53 per cent return on shareholder funds.

However, Pat Low pointed out that “the return is a more realistic 16.4 per cent on the average portfolio of S$343.5b (opening S$306b + closing S$381b) /2)”, which could be driven by either high leverage or high shareholder fund enhancement over the years.

He also acknowledged that the asset valuation of an investment company could affect its profit and loss (P&L), citing the Singapore Stock Exchange which moving up only by 8.7 per cent during the year.

Pat Low also mentioned that the profit is significantly impacted by the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS9).

“Under IFRS9, changes in the mark-to-market valuation of listed companies in which Temasek hold less than 20% control are now brought into the group P&L. This is the international accounting standard that Temasek adopted and which came into effect in 2019.

“In 2019 and 2020 these holdings showed a small valuation loss. In 2021, the valuation profit was S$45.5b thus contributing to 81% of the profit. Without this, the profit would have been only S$11b, representing a mere 4.8% ROI on shareholder fund and 3% against average portfolio,” he said.

This also raised the question as to how did this under sub-20 per cent holding valuation gains came about this year, said Pat Low, highlighting three ways that might lead to this:

(1) It had a large holding of sub-20 per cent listed companies;

(2) It made huge investments of sub-20 per cent stocks at the earlier part of the year when prices were generally lower; and

(3) It disposed of huge inventory sub-20 per cent stocks, which had been carrying substantial valuation loss provisions. Upon disposal, the negative counters disappear from the exercise, pushing valuation into positive territory.

“However, (1) cannot be discerned with no data. (2) and (3) are unlikely as divestment was only S$49b and new investments S$39b. Too small to be causation for the S$46.5b valuation gains,” said the blogger.

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Lim Tean criticizes Govt’s rejection of basic income report, urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Lim Tean, leader of Peoples Voice (PV), criticizes the government’s defensive response to the basic living income report, accusing it of avoiding reality.

He calls on citizens to assess affordability and choose MPs who can truly enhance their lives in the upcoming election.

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SINGAPORE: A recently published report, “Minimum Income Standard 2023: Household Budgets in a Time of Rising Costs,” unveils figures detailing the necessary income households require to maintain a basic standard of living, using the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) method.

The newly released study, spearheaded by Dr Ng Kok Hoe of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) specifically focuses on working-age households in 2021 and presents the latest MIS budgets, adjusted for inflation from 2020 to 2022.

The report detailed that:

  • The “reasonable starting point” for a living wage in Singapore was S$2,906 a month.
  • A single parent with a child aged two to six required S$3,218 per month.
  • Partnered parents with two children, one aged between seven and 12 and the other between 13 and 18, required S$6,426 a month.
  • A single elderly individual required S$1,421 a month.
  • Budgets for both single and partnered parent households averaged around S$1,600 per member. Given recent price inflation, these figures have risen by up to 5% in the current report.

Singapore Govt challenges MIS 2023 report’s representation of basic needs

Regrettably, on Thursday (14 Sept), the Finance Ministry (MOF), Manpower Ministry (MOM), and Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF) jointly issued a statement dismissing the idea suggested by the report, claiming that minimum household income requirements amid inflation “might not accurately reflect basic needs”.

Instead, they claimed that findings should be seen as “what individuals would like to have.”, and further defended their stances for the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) and other measures to uplift lower-wage workers.

The government argued that “a universal wage floor is not necessarily the best way” to ensure decent wages for lower-wage workers.

The government’s statement also questions the methodology of the Minimum Income Standards (MIS) report, highlighting limitations such as its reliance on respondent profiles and group dynamics.

“The MIS approach used is highly dependent on respondent profiles and on group dynamics. As the focus groups included higher-income participants, the conclusions may not be an accurate reflection of basic needs.”

The joint statement claimed that the MIS approach included discretionary expenditure items such as jewellery, perfumes, and overseas holidays.

Lim Tean slams Government’s response to basic living income report

In response to the government’s defensive reaction to the recent basic living income report, Lim Tean, leader of the alternative party Peoples Voice (PV), strongly criticizes the government’s apparent reluctance to confront reality, stating, “It has its head buried in the sand”.

He strongly questioned the government’s endorsement of the Progressive Wage Model (PWM) as a means to uplift the living standards of the less fortunate in Singapore, describing it as a misguided approach.

In a Facebook video on Friday (15 Sept), Lim Tean highlighted that it has become a global norm, especially in advanced and first-world countries, to establish a minimum wage, commonly referred to as a living wage.

“Everyone is entitled to a living wage, to have a decent life, It is no use boasting that you are one of the richest countries in the world that you have massive reserves, if your citizens cannot have a decent life with a decent living wage.”

Lim Tean cited his colleague, Leong Sze Hian’s calculations, which revealed a staggering 765,800 individuals in Singapore, including Permanent Residents and citizens, may not earn the recommended living wage of $2,906, as advised by the MIS report.

“If you take away the migrant workers or the foreign workers, and take away those who do not work, underage, are children you know are unemployed, and the figure is staggering, isn’t it?”

“You know you are looking at a very substantial percentage of the workforce that do not have sufficient income to meet basic needs, according to this report.”

He reiterated that the opposition parties, including the People’s Voice and the People’s Alliance, have always called for a minimum wage, a living wage which the government refuses to countenance.

Scepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs

In a time of persistently high inflation, Lim Tean expressed skepticism about the government’s ability to control rising costs.

He cautioned against believing in predictions of imminent inflation reduction and lower interest rates below 2%, labeling them as unrealistic.

Lim Tean urged Singaporeans to assess their own affordability in these challenging times, especially with the impending GST increase.

He warned that a 1% rise in GST could lead to substantial hikes in everyday expenses, particularly food prices.

Lim Tean expressed concern that the PAP had become detached from the financial struggles of everyday Singaporeans, citing their high salaries and perceived insensitivity to the common citizen’s plight.

Lim Tean urges Singaporeans to rethink election choices

Highlighting the importance of the upcoming election, Lim Tean recommended that citizens seriously evaluate the affordability of their lives.

“If you ask yourself about affordability, you will realise that you have no choice, In the coming election, but to vote in a massive number of opposition Members of Parliament, So that they can make a difference.”

Lim Tean emphasized the need to move beyond the traditional notion of providing checks and balances and encouraged voters to consider who could genuinely improve their lives.

“To me, the choice is very simple. It is whether you decide to continue with a life, that is going to become more and more expensive: More expensive housing, higher cost of living, jobs not secure because of the massive influx of foreign workers,” he declared.

“Or you choose members of Parliament who have your interests at heart and who want to make your lives better.”

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Political observers call for review of Singapore’s criteria of Presidential candidates and propose 5 year waiting period for political leaders

Singaporean political observers express concern over the significantly higher eligibility criteria for private-sector presidential candidates compared to public-sector candidates, calling for adjustments.

Some also suggest a five year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before allowed to partake in the presidential election.

Notably, The Workers’ Party has earlier reiterated its position that the current qualification criteria favor PAP candidates and has called for a return to a ceremonial presidency instead of an elected one.

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While the 2023 Presidential Election in Singapore concluded on Friday (1 September), discussions concerning the fairness and equity of the electoral system persist.

Several political observers contend that the eligibility criteria for private-sector individuals running for president are disproportionately high compared to those from the public sector, and they propose that adjustments be made.

They also recommend a five-year waiting period for aspiring political leaders after leaving their party before being allowed to participate in the presidential election.

Aspiring entrepreneur George Goh Ching Wah, announced his intention to in PE 2023 in June. However, His application as a candidate was unsuccessful, he failed to receive the Certificate of Eligibility (COE) on 18 August.

Mr Goh had expressed his disappointment in a statement after the ELD’s announcement, he said, the Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) took a very narrow interpretation of the requirements without explaining the rationale behind its decision.

As per Singapore’s Constitution, individuals running for the presidency from the private sector must have a minimum of three years’ experience as a CEO in a company.

This company should have consistently maintained an average shareholders’ equity of at least S$500 million and sustained profitability.

Mr Goh had pursued eligibility through the private sector’s “deliberative track,” specifically referring to section 19(4)(b)(2) of the Singapore Constitution.

He pointed out five companies he had led for over three years, collectively claiming a shareholders’ equity of S$1.521 billion.

Notably, prior to the 2016 revisions, the PEC might have had the authority to assess Mr Goh’s application similarly to how it did for Mr Tan Jee Say in the 2011 Presidential Election.

Yet, in its current formulation, the PEC is bound by the definitions laid out in the constitution.

Calls for equitable standards across public and private sectors

According to Singapore’s Chinese media outlet, Shin Min Daily News, Dr Felix Tan Thiam Kim, a political analyst at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore, noted that in 2016, the eligibility criteria for private sector candidates were raised from requiring them to be executives of companies with a minimum capital of S$100 million to CEOs of companies with at least S$500 million in shareholder equity.

However, the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates remained unchanged. He suggests that there is room for adjusting the eligibility criteria for public sector candidates.

Associate Professor Bilver Singh, Deputy Head of the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, believes that the constitutional requirements for private-sector individuals interested in running are excessively stringent.

He remarked, “I believe it is necessary to reassess the relevant regulations.”

He points out that the current regulations are more favourable for former public officials seeking office and that the private sector faces notably greater challenges.

“While it may be legally sound, it may not necessarily be equitable,” he added.

Proposed five-year waiting period for political leaders eyeing presidential race

Moreover, despite candidates severing ties with their political parties in pursuit of office, shedding their political affiliations within a short timeframe remains a challenging endeavour.

A notable instance is Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who resigned from the People’s Action Party (PAP) just slightly over a month before announcing his presidential candidacy, sparking considerable debate.

During a live broadcast, his fellow contender, Ng Kok Song, who formerly served as the Chief Investment Officer of GIC, openly questioned Mr Tharman’s rapid transition to a presidential bid shortly after leaving his party and government.

Dr Felix Tan suggests that in the future, political leaders aspiring to run for the presidency should not only resign from their parties but also adhere to a mandatory waiting period of at least five years before entering the race.

Cherian George and Kevin Y.L. Tan: “illogical ” to raise the corporate threshold in 2016

Indeed, the apprehension regarding the stringent eligibility criteria and concerns about fairness in presidential candidacy requirements are not limited to political analysts interviewed by Singapore’s mainstream media.

Prior to PE2023, CCherian George, a Professor of media studies at Hong Kong Baptist University, and Kevin Y.L. Tan, an Adjunct Professor at both the Faculty of Law of the National University of Singapore and the NTU’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), brought attention to the challenges posed by the qualification criteria for candidates vying for the Singaporean Presidency.

In their article titled “Why Singapore’s Next Elected President Should be One of its Last,” the scholars discussed the relevance of the current presidential election system in Singapore and floated the idea of returning to an appointed President, emphasizing the symbolic and unifying role of the office.

They highlighted that businessman George Goh appeared to be pursuing the “deliberative track” for qualification, which requires candidates to satisfy the PEC that their experience and abilities are comparable to those of a typical company’s chief executive with shareholder equity of at least S$500 million.

Mr Goh cobbles together a suite of companies under his management to meet the S$500m threshold.

The article also underscored the disparities between the eligibility criteria for candidates from the public and private sectors, serving as proxies for evaluating a candidate’s experience in handling complex financial matters.

“It is hard to see what financial experience the Chairman of the Public Service Commission or for that matter, the Chief Justice has, when compared to a Minister or a corporate chief.”

“The raising of the corporate threshold in 2016 is thus illogical and serves little purpose other than to simply reduce the number of potentially eligible candidates.”

The article also touches upon the issue of candidates’ independence from political parties, particularly the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

It mentions that candidates are expected to be non-partisan and independent, and it questions how government-backed candidates can demonstrate their independence given their previous affiliations.

The Workers’ Party advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency

It comes as no surprise that Singapore’s alternative party, the Workers’ Party, reaffirmed its stance on 30 August, asserting that they believe the existing qualifying criteria for presidential candidates are skewed in favour of those approved by the People’s Action Party (PAP).

They argue that the current format of the elected presidency (EP) undermines the principles of parliamentary democracy.

“It also serves as an unnecessary source of gridlock – one that could potentially cripple a non-PAP government within its first term – and is an alternative power centre that could lead to political impasses.”

Consistently, the Workers’ Party has been vocal about its objection to the elected presidency and has consistently called for its abolition.

Instead, they advocate for a return to a ceremonial presidency, a position they have maintained for over three decades.

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