With the announcement of the ‘musical chairs’ cabinet shuffle—save the introduction of Tan See Leng, a 56-year-old political scene newbie—we can safely say that there will not be any decision on who the next Prime Minister will be until the next General Election, at least until the next cabinet reshuffle takes place.
What this would mean is that PM Lee Hsien Loong will remain as PM till the next GE — at least three more years, barring any incredible events.
While Heng Swee Keat remains as Deputy Prime Minister, he has relinquished the position as designated PM successor, which renders his position as a placeholder. He is not even going to stand in for PM Lee in the event if the Prime Minister is not in Singapore.
Although Lawrence Wong has been appointed as Finance Minister, it is merely a step up from his previous appointment as Second Minister of Finance.
Despite being touted by local media as one of the contenders for PM Lee’s successor, his portfolio does not reflect what a possible candidate for such a role would look like.
Ong Ye Kung, a favourite possible choice of many for the next PM in line, is appointed as Health Minister.
However, the appointment has hardly advanced him in the PM race amongst his counterparts.
One good thing that may come out of this appointment would be that Ong—as someone who is seemingly much more efficient than his counterparts when it comes to managing their ministries—will hopefully be able to steer Singapore through the COVID-19 pandemic in his new role with better thought-out policies compared to the reactive ones we have seen so far.
Chan Chun Seng is now appointed as Education Minister — a position that is far from any resemblance of a would-be PM.
Not to mention, his role as Deputy Chairman of People’s Association has been passed to Edwin Tong in this latest announcement.
Even with the latest developments, my bet is still on Chan being PAP leadership’s choice for PM successor, given his existing portfolio.
Leading up to the next GE, he would only need to take over the position of Finance Minister or Defence Minister to be properly positioned as the next DPM and PM-designate.
What may be lacking for him is, however, his abysmal public approval rate — something that needs to be improved in order to make him a viable choice to spearhead the 4G leadership crop.
As for Desmond Lee, who was also named as a possible contender, he was not part of the shuffle, making his contestation for the 4G leadership even more unlikely as Minister of National Development.
As it stands today, Lee Hsien Loong has positioned himself to continue as leader of the 4G cabinet until the next General Election.
It is unlikely that anyone will be appointed as PM during this period other than Heng, who already has been a named successor prior to the last GE.
The most that could happen — leading up to the next election — is the appointment of a new DPM as a pathway to prop up the individual as the next possible PM successor.
PAP will have to first secure public approval on its future 4G leader before it officially designates one, as it will determine the party’s success in the next GE.
On a certain level, Heng’s decision to back out as PM-designate has already diminished public trust in PAP’s succession plan — another failure will prove to be a disaster for the party’s grip on voters’ confidence.
It remains in question as to what had happened to the succession plan PM Lee had promised to put in place 16 years ago.
