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总统会见王瑞杰 评估国家长期投资预估回报

by Yee Loon
09/12/2019
in 新闻, 时事, 财经
Reading Time: 1 min read
0

昨日(12月8日),新加坡总统哈莉玛在脸书分享一张照片,她与总统顾问理事会成员,正在会议上聆听副总理暨财政部长王瑞杰,向她汇报本届政府对于相关资产投资的长期实得回报推算。

哈莉玛解释在准备年度财政预算案上,这个环节十分重要,他们将审视有关回报预估,在国家储备净投资回报收益(NIR)框架下,预估回报用来决定政府可以动用多少储备。

与会者还包括金融管理局(MAS)、政府投资公司(GIC)和淡马锡控股的代表。

哈莉玛指出,他与财政部以及投资机构在宏观经济议题上有良好的讨论,并表示将在总统顾问理事会咨询下,检视政府的提案。

根据宪法,每一年预算案,政府对预期回报的预估,都要经过总统批准。

在每个财年开始前,GIC、金管局和淡马锡控股,将由内部投资专才,提出预期长期实得回报的预估,此外也会征询外部专才意见。

之后,财政部将检视有关预估回报率,并建议用在三个机构投资净资产。如果综合和政府对预期回报率存有异议,则将根据过去20年平均回报率,作为政府可支出金额的基准。

在财政部的官网,也有解释道,以20年平均历史回报率,作为避免总统与政府间分歧的中立和务实基础,避免现今政府瘫痪。

要知道,每届政府累积的盈余,都要纳入国家储备金,创造国家储备净投资回报贡献(Net Investment Returns Contributions,简称NIRC)。

NIRC框架是从2009年起实施,一开始只包括金管局和GIC的贡献。从2016年起,淡马锡控股的预期收益也被纳入框架。在这期间,NIRC年年走高,是我国收入的最大来源。

财政部可以从上述三家机构的预期NIR,提出高达50巴仙,作为财政收入。

2019财政年政府整体预算收支预计出现35亿元的赤字,占国内生产总值(GDP)的0.7巴仙,而预料盈余达到21亿1600万元。

新财年的国家储备净投资回报贡献(Net Investment Returns Contributions,简称NIRC)则预计为172亿元,增加4.5巴仙。

净投资回报贡献自2009年的70亿元,一直增长到2019年的逾170亿元,其中最大的原因是因为纳入淡马锡控股。

而有经济学家估计,三年来我国的累积盈余可能已达150亿元。

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