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贸工部下调2019年GDP增长预测 零至一巴仙之间

by Yee Loon
13/08/2019
in 新闻, 时事, 财经
Reading Time: 1 min read
0

(图源:新加坡)

贸工部今日在官网发文告,该部对2019年的国内生产总值(GDP)经济成长预测,下调至“0.0至1.0巴仙”之间。此前的预测介于1.5至2.5之间。

上月,贸工部公布预估数据,新加坡经济在第二季度(2Q19)表现不如预期,增长仅0.1巴仙,比上季度的1.1巴仙更低。

经季节性调整按环比折年率计算,从上季度的3.8巴仙增长,下跌了3.4巴仙。

该部在最新文告指出,自五月份发布新加坡经济民调以来,全球成长前景又进一步萎缩,例如国际货币基金在上月也下调了2019年增长,特别是在关键崛起中市场和发展中国家如东南亚五国和中国,增长预估都基于中美贸易冲突而恶化。

与此同时,持续的低迷、不确定性和中美贸易冲突,使全球电子产品周期已经进入了一个急剧下滑的趋势,对拥有大量电子产品和相关行业的经济体料造成更大拖累。

该部也预计今年下半年,新加坡关键需求市场的经济成长放缓,或可能与上半年持同。

制造业比去年同期萎缩3.1巴仙,比前一季的0.3巴仙萎缩更多。制造业产出萎缩主要是基于电子、交通工程和精确工程等领域的产出减少。

与之相反,生化医疗制造和普通制造领域的产出增长。

不过,该部预测国内一些制造业领域如航空及饮食制造加工,基于稳健的需求料将保持良好表现。服务业方面,有鉴于对企业资讯工艺和付费服务的需求,资讯通讯、金融保险领域的增长预估维持健康状态。

鉴于医疗保健领域扩张运营,预料教育、医疗和社会服务领域仍能适应;至于建筑领域的复苏则维持。

另一方面,新加坡企业发展局的季度报告指出,基于石油和非石油贸易皆萎缩,前一季虽增长2.1巴仙,却被上一季的总商品贸易年比萎缩2.1巴仙抵消。

非石油国内出口的跌幅也从前一季的6.4巴仙,进一步扩大到14.6巴仙。

当局把全年的总商品贸易预测下调到萎缩三至两巴仙之间;非石油国内出口调降为萎缩九至八巴仙之间。

不过, 此前贸工部长陈振声在国会书面答复议员提问,认为尽管中美贸易战持续,惟在中、美营业的新加坡公司受到的影响不大。

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