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金管局报告指失业率维持2.1巴仙 惟未揭露就业不足数据

by Yee Loon
14/12/2018
in 劳工, 新闻, 时事
Reading Time: 1 min read
0

根据新加坡金融管理局日前发布的经济师调查报告(Survey of Professional Forecasters),年终的失业率相比九月份的指数保持不变,维持在2.1巴仙。

报告也预测今年全年经济增长为3.3%,稍微高于三个月前所预测的3.2%。但对明年经济增长预测叫不乐观,为2.6巴仙,低于今年。

金管局预计今年我国经济增长介于3.0至3.4巴仙,与前期报告没有变化。

不过,预计今年全年的消费者物价指数(CPI)通货膨胀,以及金管局的核心通膨指数,将分别达到0.5巴仙和1.7巴仙。

至于明年的CPI通货膨胀率预计提升至1.3巴仙,金管局核心通膨指数则预计1.8巴仙。

金管局称,大部分受访经济师认为贸易减缓,使得新加坡成长前景有上行空间。但所有受访者都认同,贸易保护主义仍是我国经济最大下行风险,高于之前的89巴仙,将之列为首要担忧。

他们也表示另一下行风险,是“美国加息速度快于预期”,恐引发金融市场动荡。

如美国利率上升,新加坡的利率也将同步上升,对于许多靠借贷买房产的国人来说,形成压力。

未报告就业不足情况

需注意的是,金管局此次报告并未提供有关就业不足(underemployment,或称不充分就业)的数据。

国内有好些PMET群体(即Professionals,Managers,Executives,Technicians——专业人士、经理、执行人员和技师),在被裁员后,改当德士司机、保险业、房地产经纪人,或兼差打零工。

在政府数据中,他们仍属“就业”群体,但他们的收入并不如过去,无法维持过去的生活水平。

从月入万五到两千,无法维持过去生活水平

例如过去就有一位总经理在裁员后,经过一段时间仍找不到工作,而改当德士司机。

任经理时他的月入高达1万5000元,但是开德士只能让他每月赚不到两千元。他要开八个月的德士,才能赚到过去的月收入。

他在三年前接受《海峡时报》采访时曾说不奢求还能再当总经理,只希望能在合适平台贡献自己的经验。“希望有人会知道、并协助改善他们这些群体的处境。”

另一年龄48岁的单身汉理查德,拥有财务管理博士学位,却丢失了他月入1万4000元的高级银行员工作。

在漫长的求职过程期间,他还打过一些零工,例如到餐厅洗碗、分发传单等,这种情况下,他当然也算“就业”。

他表示,即是自己愿意以低至三千元的薪资从事看护工作,但雇主仍强调需要有相关经验。

对此现象,新加坡社科大学经济学家Walter Theseira也担忧,PMET群体一旦脱离他们的专业领域职涯轨道,可能很难重返。雇主可能会认为,面试者曾开私召车、卖房地产,和他们专业职涯经验无关。

 

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