Car sales disguise lifeless Singapore retail sales

Compared to November 2015, retail sales rose 1.1% in November 2016, mostly caused by the vehicle sales, according to the data in the 13 January media release of Department of Statistics (Singstat). Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales declined 2.1%. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales (seasonally adjusted) increased 0.5% in November 2016 over the previous month. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales decreased 0.3%. The total retail sales value in November 2016 was estimated at $3.6 billion, similar to that in November 2015. The sales of food & beverage services (seasonally adjusted) fell 1.6% in November 2016 over the previous month while sales of food & beverage services declined 1.3% in November 2016, compared to the same period last year.

The Singstat data shows total sales value of food & beverage services in November 2016 was estimated at $650 million, lower than the $659 million in November 2015. After seasonal adjustment, retail sales of motor vehicles, medical goods & toiletries, petrol service stations, department stores1, furniture & household equipment and optical goods & books increased between 0.9% and 3.6% in November 2016 over October 2016 (Table 1).

On the other hand, retail sales of computer & telecommunications equipment, watches & jewellery, food & beverages, recreational goods, mini-marts & convenience stores, supermarkets and wearing apparel & footwear declined between 0.2% and 9.4% over the same period. Compared to November 2015, retail sales of motor vehicles grew by 17.0% in November 2016, the largest out of all the sectors. Similarly, retail sales of medical goods & toiletries, recreational goods and optical goods & books increased between 0.3% and 4.4% over the same period. In contrast, retail sales of computer & telecommunications equipment declined 13.5% in November 2016 over November 2015. Likewise, retail sales of watches & jewellery, wearing apparel & footwear, furniture & household equipment, supermarkets, food & beverages, department stores1, mini-marts & convenience stores and petrol service stations fell between 1.1% and 6.0% during this period. After seasonal adjustment, sales of restaurants and other eating places (such as cafes) declined 6.4% and 0.5% respectively in November 2016 over October 2016 (Table 2). Conversely, turnover of fast food outlets and food caterers rose 8.1% and 0.2% respectively over the same period. Turnover of restaurants decreased 11.9% in November 2016 compared to November 2015. In contrast, sales of food caterers, fast food outlets and other eating places increased between 5.0% and 7.5% during this period. Sales figure refers to the value of retail goods or food & beverages sold to consumers during the month, excluding taxes on products such as Goods and Services Tax (GST), Additional Registration Fee (ARF) and Certificates of Entitlement (COE). Seasonal effects are observed in both the Retail Sales Index (RSI) and Food & Beverage Services Index (FSI) as there are usually intra-year periodic variations that repeat during the fixed period of time every year. To better reflect the underlying trend of the monthly sales, both indices are seasonally adjusted to remove the seasonal effects.