US and France broker Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire after 13 months of conflict

A ceasefire agreement has been reached to end 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, US President Joe Biden announced on 26 November.

The ceasefire will take effect at 04:00 local time on 27 November (02:00 GMT). Biden described the deal as a “historic” step toward a “permanent cessation of hostilities.”

French President Emmanuel Macron, who played a key role in brokering the agreement, emphasised that the ceasefire could pave the way for peace in Gaza.

In a video statement, Macron said, “This agreement should open the path for a ceasefire too long awaited with regards to the incomparable suffering of the population in Gaza.”

Je tenais à saluer l’accord de cessez-le-feu agréé ce jour entre Israël et le Liban. pic.twitter.com/0vHbMBLOFe

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) November 26, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the deal following its approval by Israel’s national security cabinet in a 10-1 vote.

Far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir opposed the agreement, calling it a “historical mistake,” though he did not withdraw support for Netanyahu’s coalition. Netanyahu underscored that Israel would respond decisively to any violation of the agreement.

The conflict, which began in October 2023, has been Lebanon’s deadliest in decades, killing at least 3,823 people and injuring over 15,800, according to Lebanese officials.

An estimated one million residents have been displaced in Hezbollah-controlled areas. The fighting escalated significantly in September 2024, following Israel’s intensified bombardments and limited ground invasion into southern Lebanon.

Terms of the Agreement

The ceasefire deal, brokered by the US with support from France, includes a 60-day timeline for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

In parallel, the Lebanese government will regain control of areas previously dominated by Hezbollah. Under the agreement, Hezbollah is expected to remove its fighters and weapons from south of the Litani River, a boundary established after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

A joint statement by the US and France highlighted that the agreement aims to “restore lasting calm and allow residents in both countries to return safely to their homes.”

France and other international actors will monitor the ceasefire’s implementation.

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called the agreement a “fundamental step towards restoring calm and stability,” urging Israel to fully comply and withdraw from occupied sites.

Consequences and Implications

The war has caused significant damage in Lebanon, with the World Bank estimating economic losses of US$8.5 billion (S$11.45 billion).

Lebanon faces a challenging recovery process, with funding sources unclear. Hezbollah has also been severely weakened; its leader Hassan Nasrallah and his presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine, were killed in Israeli strikes in September and October 2024, respectively.

Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah remains politically significant in Lebanon, with parliamentary representation and deep-rooted support among the Shia population.

Analysts fear the group’s diminished capacity could lead to shifts in Lebanon’s internal political dynamics or spark internal violence.

For Israel, the ceasefire allows its military to focus on other challenges, particularly the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Netanyahu stated that the agreement isolates Hamas, Hezbollah’s ally, and strengthens Israel’s position against the “Iranian threat.”

International Response

President Biden reiterated that Israel reserves the right to respond to any violations of the agreement, consistent with international law.

Meanwhile, Macron’s call for a broader ceasefire in Gaza underscores the interconnectedness of the region’s conflicts.

The ceasefire marks a significant but fragile step in the Middle East’s tumultuous landscape. Its success hinges on adherence by both parties and sustained international monitoring to prevent a resurgence of hostilities.