Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party loses majority amid political scandal and economic concerns

JAPAN: In a historic shift, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its single-party majority in the Lower House following the national elections on 27 October.

Voter backlash over recent political scandals and dissatisfaction with the LDP’s response to economic challenges contributed to the party’s significant setback, marking its worst election result since 2009.

The LDP and its long-term coalition partner Komeito, who previously held a combined 279 seats in the 465-seat Lower House, saw their numbers drop to 209 seats, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK.

The results signify a powerful statement from the electorate, which appeared disillusioned with the LDP’s longstanding dominance and recent political controversies. In the weeks leading up to the election, the LDP was embroiled in a scandal involving unreported proceeds from factional fundraising events.

Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida resigned amid criticism over his perceived failure to adequately address the issue, with Shigeru Ishiba assuming leadership in an attempt to reform the party’s image.

In an unusual move to mitigate the fallout, Ishiba withheld official LDP endorsements for candidates linked to the scandal.

However, a subsequent revelation that these non-endorsed candidates still received equivalent funding from the party—20 million yen each (approximately US$132,000)—sparked fresh public discontent. Amid inflationary pressures and memories of rising prices, the scandal added fuel to existing economic grievances.

Prime Minister Ishiba acknowledged the challenging outcome, stating on TV Tokyo that the election had been “very tough” for the LDP and pledging to carefully consider coalition arrangements once the final results are tallied.

His stance on coalition possibilities underscores the precarious position of the ruling bloc, which now falls short of the Lower House majority threshold of 233 seats. Coalition ally Komeito’s leader, Keiichi Ishii, also lost his district seat last month, a further blow to the coalition’s unity and strength.

The election outcome has energised Japan’s main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), which secured 143 seats—an increase from its previous 98.

CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda, speaking at a press conference, described the election as a turning point for Japan’s governance and expressed a commitment to collaborative efforts with other opposition groups to form a new government.

LIVE 第50回衆議院議員総選挙投開票日野田佳彦代表会見 @NODAYOSHI55 https://t.co/YevgfbvyFm

— 立憲民主党 (@CDP2017) October 27, 2024

This shift in political dynamics introduces fresh uncertainty into Japan’s government formation process and presents possible paths to coalition arrangements.

Smaller parties such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the Japan Innovation Party may now wield influence, despite holding differing policy views from the LDP.

The DPP, holding 27 seats, and the Japan Innovation Party, with 35 seats, could become pivotal in potential power-sharing discussions, though ideological differences with the LDP may complicate negotiations.

The election is viewed as a major referendum on the LDP’s approach to both political ethics and economic management.

The party’s diminished standing reflects public frustration with its handling of inflation and high-profile issues like the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Criticism surrounding Abe’s assassination extended to alleged ties between LDP members and a Christian movement linked to the case, further weakening public trust.

Ishiba, who recently called the snap election to seek public backing for his leadership, attempted to position the LDP as a reformed entity by promising a fresh start at a pre-election rally, where he pledged to make the party “fair, just, and sincere.” Despite these assurances, the results suggest that voters were unconvinced by this new approach.

In Japan’s post-war history, the LDP has maintained an almost continuous grip on power, except for brief intervals.

Most recently, it lost control of the government in 2009 to the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan, only to regain power in 2012.

The current election marks another rare interruption in this nearly uninterrupted reign, underscoring voter appetite for accountability and governance reform.

With the LDP’s future uncertain, the political landscape in Japan is set for possible turbulence as parties explore coalition frameworks to address the country’s pressing economic and security issues.

The final election count, expected in the early hours of 28 October, will likely guide the immediate steps for Ishiba and his coalition as they navigate this critical juncture in Japanese politics.