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裘佐柏:新加坡选民害怕非行动党政府执政?

by 林殊
10/07/2019
in 时事, 舆论
Reading Time: 1 min read
0

(左为律师Kush Chopra ;右为新加坡选票站)

维权律师Khush Chopra:

我由衷认为,我们不会过分忧虑“不是人民行动党政府执政的新加坡”,而且我们已经准备好做出改变。

前《海峡时报》主编日前于《南华早报》(SCMP)刊登一篇有关《新加坡大选:不同政党存在为何影响些微》,警示反对党:

“当扳倒人民行动党的声浪过高,新加坡的选民反而会重投执政党的怀抱。”

文章中点出新加坡反对党目前混乱、毫无头绪和颠三倒四的动向,造成反对党在来临的大选中难以有任何具影响力的结果。其中“难以团结的反对党”与“无补选策略”是推动选民再次将投票投向人民行动党的关键因素。

文章以措辞强烈的声明批评反对党的现状,作者直言新加坡反对党虽多,但因各党派的混乱和毫无头绪,导致反对党並无胜算。

文章的核心论点围绕在反对党四分五裂的现状,稀释了反对党的票数。如同英语中谚语:厨子多了烧坏汤(too many cooks spoil the broth),当人太多不团结时,无法达成一致的目标。

文章重点:

“出现十个挑战者,或许对人民行动党会形成致命的威胁,但选举与足球赛不同,选举并不是以多取胜。反观,人民在这些反对党上看到两个关键点。

  • 愈多反对党相互竞争,越可能在选举中出现多角战的情况。内斗式的竞争损耗了他们在对抗行动党的竞争力。
  • 过多的党派会显得更混乱和缺乏凝聚力,无法集中战略对抗敌人。

同时,文章里也提到几个问题:

  • 你认为害怕新加坡改变的人,会比需要新加坡改变的人更多吗?
  • 新加坡人认为反对党是能替代掉行动党,组成可信赖的政府?
  • 反对党的团结,是否成为选举中成功的关键?
  • 反对党间是否有可能合作,以防止内斗的放生,维持一致的信息和团结以取得胜利?
  • 反对党是否真的如同作者所说的混乱和四分五裂?
  • 你认为新加坡人仍会持续将票投给人民行动党,即使他们无法善待人民?

尽管我没有任何证据充分支持我对以上问题的答案,但我不同意文章所提出的观点。

我必须说,作者在文章中提出部分有效且有趣的观察,但相对的,也在他过分悲观的预测中,做了不必要的臆测和重要疏漏。

例如作者说对未来感到不确定,让新加坡人再把票投给人民行动党的错误臆测。这确定是真的吗?

这是非常老套的想法,尤其是在没有任何确凿的证据或研究的支持下,作出这样的结论。

文章中也引用了部分选举以“补选”胜出的策略,我认为是无端的猜测。每场反对党的胜出都归咎于不同的因素,包括反对党在人民身上勤奋工作的因素。

作者也假设反对党之间不会合作,避免三角战和同仇敌忾。

坦白讲,这是可以协调的,当然三角战肯定会稀释掉反对党的票数。

而上述作者最大的争议在于,仅针对反对党的推动因素,如分散票数的关键点而作讨论,但并没有包括拉动因素,如新加坡选民在大选期间的投票模式。

我反而认为拉动因素才是最值得讨论的现况。事实上,作者并未提及一些关于行动党的在选民中所产生的拉动因素:

品牌附着力(Brand adhesion):选民的忠诚,或是说愚忠(在透过多年的洗脑所产生出来的幻想与错误思想意识)

恐惧(Fear): 被行动党常年的言论所恐惧(包括在人民身上产生“政治斯德哥尔摩症候群”,在民主被绑架的国家中,其恐惧能够避免人们看见显而易见的真相,否认事实的存在,以寻求生存下去。

习惯(habit):部分冷漠的选民中没有自己的独立思考,也看不见任何具体的理由要改变自己选票上的选项。

大部分东南亚国家包括新加坡的政治进程,多个人品德与家庭为主,而非从意识形态和政策竞辩出发。

2015年的大选是证明该观点的最佳证据。继已故总理李光耀的逝世后,大选期间被遗憾感伤的氛围所主导,导致许多焦点被模糊。尔后,这股强烈的氛围却在总理李显龙的家庭内斗被取而代之,使人民对总理过多的权力憎恶。故,情绪因素经常在选举中起的举足轻重的作用。

然而,作者却没有将人民情绪的影响力带入其中,而情绪极具可能恶化人民行动党与人民的关系与选举的动向,而开启前所未有的政治历史。

以上均是我对作者夸张及过度悲观言论的看法。

反对党的增生与补选策略并不是反对党无法胜出的关键因素。事实上,我认为仍有其他拉动因素致使反对党一直处于弱势,而这些因素必须立即被解决,方能扳倒人民行动党。

另一方面,我们对于这些拉动因素保持正面的看法,因为可能他们仍可能由拉动因素转变成推动人民行动党倒台的因素,它可能会出现也希望它已经出现这样的可能。

投票赶走他们吧!#VTO.

原文如下:

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