Friday, 22 September 2023

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8月核心通膨率1.9% 四年最高位

新加坡金融管理局与贸易与工业部发表消费价格指数数据,指今年8月份核心通货膨胀率达到1.9巴仙,维持在四年来最高位,整体通膨率进一步攀升至0.7巴仙。

7月份的核心通膨率也是1.9巴仙,5月份为1.5巴仙。至于7月份的整体通膨率0.6巴仙。

消费价格指数用以衡量国内整体物价,金管局则参考核心通膨率调控货币政策,它不涵括住宿和私人陆路交通成本。

零售和食品通膨较高

更高的零售和食品通膨,抵消掉服务业通膨放缓,致使8月核心通膨率仍维持在1.9巴仙。

文告解释,整体通膨上升,主要原因是住宿成本放慢跌幅。住宿成本在8月下滑2.6巴仙,比7月的3巴仙跌幅小,这反映住房租金跌幅放缓,住屋维修和修理成本增涨。

私人陆路交通成本跌幅0.2巴仙,与上月相同,汽车价格小幅下跌,却被燃油价格稍涨抵消。

不过,整体零售物品成本增涨达到2.0巴仙,比7月的1.6巴仙高。这反映在衣物和鞋子价格加剧上扬,意即个人保养品价格从7月份的跌势中反弹。

8月份的食物价格通膨达到1.7,比起上月增0.2巴仙,乃基于非熟食和现成餐点价格增幅较快。

服务业的通膨则从上月的1.5下跌至1.3巴仙,反映电讯业跌幅抵消了机票涨价。

金管局和贸工部预测,进口通膨可能轻微增涨。自今年初,全球油价就已反弹,预计今年平均价格将比去年高。

另一方面,在供应充足、需求增强前提下,预计全球粮食商品价格将小幅增涨。

随着工资涨幅加速和内需回升,预计国内通膨来源也随着增涨。不过,零售租金相对低迷、企业定价能力仍受市场竞争制约,相信消费者价格涨幅不大。

至于2018年全年的核心通膨率,预计会逐步上升至1-2巴仙之间的范围。消费者价格指数全物价通膨的全年预测范围也介于0-1巴仙。

比起去年,住宿费用的预测跌幅较小,而私人陆路交通受到前期政策的影响(路税回扣期限到和停车费上调)已经消散,其2018年通膨率预计将下滑。

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