By FAILRAIL.sg
Channel News Asia had earlier reported on 18 December that fewer trains are being pulled out of service in 2014, as train withdrawal rates reach 2007 levels.
In an interview with CNA, Transport Minister, Lui Tuck Yew said he plans to better this by lowering the rate to 2006 levels in 2015 – where under one train is withdrawn for every 100,000 km travelled.
The report goes on to state that the first three quarters of 2014 saw 12 delays of more than 30 minutes compared to eight in 2013. Mr Lui added that this is an area that needs to be looked into and closely monitored.
Land Transport Authority (LTA)’s statistics on the number of train service delays exceeding 30 minutes is understated, as compared to a public database that has been recording reported train service disruptions since 2000.

Year #Service Delays Exceeding 30 min (LTA) #Service Delays Exceeding 30 min (FAILRAIL.sg)
2011 11 14
(Google Spreadsheet | Webpage)
2012 8 69
(Google Spreadsheet | Webpage)
2013 8 39
(Google Spreadsheet | Webpage)
2014 (except Q4) 12 28
(Google Spreadsheet | Webpage)

Why such a big discrepancy in numbers?
How does LTA determine the length of delay? Is the length of delay based on the travel advisory whenever trains break down e.g. “Estimate X mins additional travelling time from Y to Z due to train fault”.
We all know those travel advisories are guesstimates and they are seldom accurate.
Even if the cause of the delay is resolved, it still takes time for crowds to clear on the platforms. For example, it took 35 minutes for normal operations to resume after train power was restored in the recent Circle Line delay on 23 December (Commuters report ‘smoke’ in cabin during Circle Line delay, CNA).
Does LTA monitor waiting time on a platform after a service delay has been resolved?
This is an important metric because it is a close measure of the commuter’s experience on the ground. If the authorities are fixated only on abstract statistics, such as the number of trains withdrawn per 100,000 train-kilometres travelled, then they are just crunching numbers in an ivory tower.
Is the data subject to independent verification by LTA or a neutral party? Or does LTA take reports from SMRT and SBS Transit at face value?
Footnote – about FAILRAIL.sg
All the incidents recorded in our database are obtained from publicly available sources (such as SMRT’s Facebook page) and supported with links to news articles and official tweets.
We calculate the length of delay as the difference between the start time and end time of the incident (i.e. when the incident was resolved). If the end time is not officially reported, we will approximate the end time to be the first SMRT’s tweet announcing that service has resumed.
For cases where there is absolutely no information on the end time, then the length of delay is defaulted to 1 minute (a very conservative approach).
 

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