By Marcus Chua, Dollars and Sense
Singapore Pools has recently altered the structure of our local lottery system, widely known as “Toto”. How does that affect your chances of winning? More importantly, should you still be betting in light of the new changes?
Here are the changes that were made to one of Singaporeans’ favourite lottery bets.
Changes:
1. Choose a combination of 6 winning numbers from 49 numbers, up from 45 numbers previously
2. The prize pool will be at least S$1 million per draw, increased from a minimum of S$500,000
3. The cost on each betting type has DOUBLED, with a minimum bet of S$ 1
4. Added new winning combination of 3 numbers, with a winning prize of S$ 10.
Does the changes sound more appealing for you to bet on Toto? It would seem fair for Singapore Pools to be doubling the cost of each betting type, and increasing the total number by 4, because they doubled the prize pool to a lucrative S$1 million.  There is also an additional prize category of S$10 for a winning combination of 3 numbers.
Now let us add in some simple probability and statistical inputs to see how the new Toto system has affected your probability of winnings compared to the previous system.
Points to note:

  • Old system winnings are pegged to the minimum S$ 500,000.
  • New system winnings are pegged to the minimum of S$ 1million
  • Only 1 punter that will win the entire prize pool of his/her category (matched winnings numbers)
Matched Winning Numbers Old System New System
Probability Winnings Expected Winnings Probability Winnings Expected Winnings
3 1/61 10 $0.16
3 + Additional Number 1/579 $20 $0.03 1/812 25 $0.03
4 1/772 $30 $0.04 1/1083 50 $0.05
4 + Additional Number 1/14290 13% of Prize Pool $4.55 1/22197 3% of Prize Pool $1.35
5 1/35724 13% of Prize Pool $1.82 1/55491 5.5% of Prize Pool $0.99
5 + Additional Number 1/1357510 13% of Prize Pool $ 0.05 1/2330636 8% Prize Pool $0.03
6 1/8145060 31% of Prize pool $0.02 1/13983816 38% Prize Pool                         $0.03
Sum of Expected Winnings $6.51 $2.65

Note: The sum of expected winnings should not be confused with expected winnings. It is two entirely different things.

Despite lower winnings payout of S$500,000 provided in the old system, the sum of expected winnings from Toto is still 2.46x higher than the new system. Why should punters be paying twice the amount for a system that is paying them so much lesser? Furthermore, you might need to share your winnings if there are more winners from the same category.
What Does This Mean For Frequent Punters?
By doubling the prize pool, it may appear that Toto have become more lucrative. However, that cannot be further from the actual truth. Singapore Pools adjusted the probability of winnings SIGNIFICANTLY by increasing the amount of numbers to 49. They also lowered the payout in some categories as well. In a nutshell, Toto punters now have a much smaller chance on winning despite paying a higher cost to purchase this glimpse of hope.
If you still feel that you are willing to part with the S$ 1, or more, of yours to buy a hope which is much smaller than before, it is definitely your choice. However we thought it is fair for us to point out the differences and how you stand to lose more, rather than gain in this new system.
This article was first published at dollarsandsense.sg

Subscribe
Notify of
1 Comment
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
You May Also Like

Popular Book Company apologises for tweet on Amos Yee

Local bookstore, Popular, has apologised for a tweet it posted on Thursday…

Why do HDB home loans have higher interest rates than bank loans?

by SingSaver Many Singaporeans often get surprised when they compare HDB home…

需负担奖励顾客归还托盘费用 裕廊西小贩联署要求废除

裕廊西小贩中心12名小贩,提交一份联署诉求信,呼吁环境局指示该小贩中心运营商,废除由小贩承担的奖励顾客送还托盘措施。 顾客每自行归还一个餐盘,可获得两角钱的奖励;但是这笔费用却要由小贩们承担。有感于每个月多出数百元增加负担,这12名小贩致函环境局,也把诉求信提呈给裕廊西小贩中心的运营商,口福集团子公司Hawker Management。 根据《今日报》报导,这些小贩是在今年8月作出上述申诉。小贩们称,打从裕廊西小贩中心在去年开张以来,只有该小贩中心奖励顾客,在用餐后归还托盘。 其中一名小贩透露,除了每月约两千元的租金和其他附加费用,承担奖励顾客归还托盘的开销,每月累积下来,有时可高达900元。 其余附加费用还包括1100元的清洁和收碗盘费、250元的服务费和300元的自动现钱机费用,致使小贩每月开销加上租金可高达4千元。 其中一名40岁不愿具名小贩表示,为此他们也曾于顾客争议,例如假设食物分量用一个托盘就可装完,顾客却拿了三个托盘,就必须给顾客6角钱的奖励。如果生意较好时,这种成本还会增加。 也有小贩反映,随着近几个月客流量减少,回归托盘的费用也侵蚀了小贩们的盈利。在生意难以为继的情况下,一些小贩选择转移经营地点。 至于环境局发言人称,有收到部分小贩的反映,但认为他们在和Hawker Management签署租赁合约时,理应注意到有关的收费条款。 另一方面,Hawker Management…