General election is definitely coming but when?
Political analysts have so far agreed that the parliamentary election would be held this year due to the feel-good effect of the jubilee anniversary of Singapore’s independence along with the possible sympathy votes generated for the ruling party with the passing of Singapore’s first prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew earlier this year.
Eugene Tan Kheng Boon, former Nominated Member of Parliament who teaches at the School of Law at Singapore Management University thinks that the general election would likely be in the later half of the year.
The associate professor feels that there are a few segments that are possible for the election to be held such as the month of September, with the most possible date in that month to be on the 12th, which is the last weekend in the school holidays.
As the election are generally held on a Saturday, the two Saturdays after 12 September is not suitable as they are close to the secondary and junior college preliminary examinations.
Holding the election in the month of September has its pros and cons, some people think that the SG50 national day has not dampened by then, but this also could render the other political parties with insufficiency time to react to the changes in the electoral boundaries. and it is believed that Singaporeans would hope to see that the general election could be held in fair condition, else this would lead to criticism against the administration.
Assoc Prof Tan thinks that an election in the month of September may be overly hastily. Furthermore, October is the month of national examinations till the month of November. Therefore, it would be more likely to be held in the month of December.
However, political scientist, Associate Professor, Bilveer Singh from the National University of Singapore said it could be as early as weeks after the National Day Rally which is normally held one or two weeks after National Day Celebration.
The Prime Minister would normally deliver his National Day Rally speech along with an announcement of new initiatives of the government and new schemes which will help Singaporeans or handouts to benefit Singaporeans at large.
Signs to show that an election is impending
Ng Eng Hen, MP for Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, defense minister and organising secretary of People’s Action Party (PAP) said in a report by Straits Times that PAP has already made preparations for the upcoming general elections, and ready with the new candidates that the party will be fielding.
Straits Times also reports that the PAP MPs has begun meeting their residents in smaller, more intimate settings.
The government mouthpiece reported,
“Some like Ms Low Yen Ling (Chua Chu Kang GRC) and Mr Ang Wei Neng (Jurong GRC) have changed the way they give out Edusave bursaries. In the past, it was a mass ceremony involving hundreds of students and a quick handshake and photo with the MP.
Now, Ms Low splits up ceremonies into several small ones, where students are asked to express their appreciation to their parents with words and hugs, often moving them to tears. For Mr Ang, bursary ceremonies are not about just presenting cheques. He and his volunteers take bursary winners and their parents to various venues like the Science Centre for fun activities as well.
MPs like Mr Hri Kumar Nair (Bishan- Toa Payoh) and Mr Zaqy Mohamad (Chua Chu Kang GRC) say that they have added “coffee mornings” or breakfast and dinner sessions to their usual block visits.”
Sources told TOC that community centres around the island have been carrying out events on both Saturday and Sunday with MPs taking part in them.
TOC’s sources also confirm that a majority of the PAP MPs have been even taking part in up to 3 to 4 events per weekend, not to mention the daily walkabouts.
Sources within the grassroots also informed TOC that PAP members were told not to leave the country after August.
Whether or not if the general election would be held in the month of September, or specifically on the 12 Sept, one thing is clear, that the election is much closer than most would expect it to be.
Minimum period for election to be held?
Some have commented that for an election to be held in September this year is way too earlier as the government would have to give at least some buffer in between the release of the new electoral boundary before the parliament is dissolved.
Looking back at the most recent General Election in 2011, the new electoral boundary was released on 24 February 2011 with the parliament being dissolved on 19 April 2011. The nomination day took place a week later on 27 April 2011 and the polling Day on 7 May 2011, nine days later.
Between the release of the new electoral boundaries and when the parliament is dissolved, there was an allowance of 54 days given to opposition parties to mark out the constituencies that they would be contesting in and to work out deals between the parties so to avoid multiple parties fight against the ruling party.
However in 2001, when Goh Chok Tong headed the PAP team as the Prime Minister for the first time facing the worst economic crisis since independence, there was only one day between the release of the electoral boundary and the dissolving of the parliament. Leaving only 16 days for oppositions to rally up their supporters and prepare for the election campaign.
That election saw the third biggest win for the PAP since the first general election in 1963 and 66.8% of the voters did not get to vote because no opposition contested in their wards.
So based on the precedence, the PAP govt only need to give one day allowance for the opposition to get ready to changes in the electoral boundaries before calling for an election.
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